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A break in an age-old correlation could suggest that oil’s troubles aren’t over: Yamada

  • Previously when the dollar fell, crude would rise as each barrel would be worth more in dollar terms.
  • But the absence of higher prices for crude despite a falling dollar leaves technical analyst Louise Yamada believing that the commodity will likely be stuck in a range, even if it doesn't tumble substantially.

The long correlation between the U.S. dollar and oil has been fading over the years, and that could temper the prospect of another big rally for crude, according to veteran technician Louise Yamada.

The managing director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors compared a long-term chart of the U.S. dollar to a chart of crude and the Commodity Channel Index, which is usually used to identify cyclical turns in commodities.

"The correlation between oil and the dollar hasn't been all that great," Yamada said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "You had a four-year top in 2011 to 2014 [in crude], and the dollar rose in 2014 and then went sideways."

"Now the dollar's coming down, and energy and the commodity index aren't doing anything at all," she added. "So I'm not sure that the correlation is necessarily in sync at this point in time."

Previously when the dollar fell, crude would rise as each barrel would be worth more in dollar terms. But the absence of higher prices for crude despite a falling dollar leaves Yamada believing that the commodity will likely be stuck in a range, even if it doesn't tumble substantially.

According to Yamada, this range is likely to be $45 to $55, meaning that "[there isn't] a compelling directional indication at this point" that would suggest a big move for crude.

Crude continued its losing streak on Wednesday, falling by more than 3 percent on news that Libya was raising production at a time when oil oversupply is still a concern for OPEC.

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