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Asia-Pacific Markets Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy


  Tuesday, 21 Sep 2010 | 2:29 AM ET

Aussie to Hit Parity with USD? Not Likely: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

How often can you postpone the Aussie parity party?

In July 2008 the Australian dollar (AUD) pushed to $0.98 and parity party invitations were issued. Within days the currency plunged to $0.78, a decline of 12% The clawback to $0.94 took 12 months to November 2009 before the AUD reached strong resistance near $0.94.

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  Monday, 13 Sep 2010 | 12:51 AM ET

Forget Basel, Financials Will Still Struggle: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

The term “as safe as a bank” has pretty much become an oxymoron since 2008, when the global financial crisis began. The "Basel III" announcements, already described as old generals fighting past wars, will unlikely do much to bring confidence back to the sector.

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  Monday, 30 Aug 2010 | 11:26 PM ET

Short S&P When 1,030 Support Is Breached: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

There are some significant differences, but also similarities, in the behavior of the blue chip Dow Jones Industrials and the broader S&P 500 indices. Historically the most significant difference is in the way the 2009 recovery trend was defined.

The Dow's breakout in 2009 developed from an inverted head-and-shoulder pattern. The S&P's breakout, on the other hand, was a more classic one, breaking off above the downtrend line. this is important because it shows a divergence in behavior between the two indices - something we need to take into consideration when interpreting their current patterns.

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  Thursday, 26 Aug 2010 | 1:43 AM ET

Don't Confuse 'Hindenburg' with 'Prima Donna': Chartist

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

Last week's occurrence of a second Hindenburg Omen in as many weeks has investors concerned if an Armageddon scenario is in the cards for the U.S. stock markets.

The Hindenburg Omen is a technical indicator used to foretell the collapse of the American market. The indicator is created by monitoring the number of stocks New York Stock Exchange making a new 52-week highs relative to the number of stocks making new 52-week lows. The omen is confirmed when both numbers are greater than 2.2 percent.

The Hindenburg Omen is specific to the NYSE, and the exact requirements of 2.2 percent often creates an illusion of reliability and has great emotional appeal. However, traders need to question if this type of "exactitude" is a result of a common statistical curve fitting called a "prima donna indicator".

Prima donna indicators, which only perform under very specific circumstances, should not be confused with robust analysis tools. The latter provides reliable results under a variety of conditions and in a variety of markets.

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  Wednesday, 18 Aug 2010 | 4:21 AM ET

$1,340 is Gold's New Long-Term Target: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

In recent weeks, the price of gold has rebounded from the support level of $1160, due to three main factors.

First is the confirmation that China has been buying gold and that it has become easier for people to buy gold. The World Gold Council estimates China produced 313 tons of gold in 2009 but demand is expected to be more than 420 tons.

Second, is the suggestion by the U.S. government that they will move into a second round of quantitative easing. This fear is combined with the developing double-dip in the U.S. economy as shown by the head-and-shoulder reversal pattern in the Dow.

Third is the call by American investment analysts at Goldman Sachs that gold could reach the price of $1,300. This is a conservative estimate, and just a few dollars higher than its recent high of $1,248.20.

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  Wednesday, 11 Aug 2010 | 12:39 AM ET

Dollar-Yen to Fall to 80, Then Consolidate: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

The dollar continued its slide against the yen on Wednesday, moving within sight of a 15-year low versus the Japanese currency.

Just how low will the dollar-yen go?

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  Thursday, 5 Aug 2010 | 12:57 AM ET

Next Few Weeks Crucial to Plot Shanghai's Direction

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

The Shanghai Composite Index's recent breakout above the 2480 resistance level has been very strong, and there is high likelihood the uptrend will continue. However, it must be said that the index's chart shows a confused pattern and this makes it difficult to project current activity and set target levels.

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  Tuesday, 27 Jul 2010 | 2:55 AM ET

Long or Short BP Stock? Here's What Charts Say

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

Even though BPappears to have plugged its massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, the firm continues to stay in the spotlight, with CEO Tony Hayward stepping down as investors digest a ugly set of quarterly earnings from the oil giant.

BP's stock has lost about half its value since the Gulf disaster in April, or a $100 billion dollars. For investors, is it worth getting in now, or will the stock continue its sell-off?

From a chartist perspective, BP's stock has been the subject of "vulture trading," which pretty much means exactly as it counds. This is a trade that picks on the carcass after the stock's been killed by the market.

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  Wednesday, 21 Jul 2010 | 1:33 AM ET

Dollar Index to Find Support at 82: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

In my previous commentary on the U.S. dollar index published in May, I mentioned that the index, which surged in mere weeks then, was primed for a collapse due to the parabolic nature of its uptrend.

The prediction appears to be coming true as the index has fallen rapidly towards 82.

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  Thursday, 15 Jul 2010 | 1:29 AM ET

Dow May Crash to 7,500 If 10,600 Not Breached

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

Seeing there's been quite a bit of interest in my recent comments on CNBC about the historical parallels between the Great Depression and the recent financial crisis, I thought it may be appropriate to elaborate further on the chart technicals behind the observation.

The causes may have been different, but the collapse of the U.S. markets in early 2008 followed the same behavioral patterns as the collapse in 1929. The recovery pattern seen in 2010, is also very similar to that developed in 1930.

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About Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia. He runs training, analysis and resource workshops for retail and professional financial market traders involved in stocks, CFDs, warrants, derivatives, futures and commodities in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. He has his own trading company, guppytraders.com.


  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.

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