The different behavior on the Dow and the other US indexes suggests the current retreat is driven by panicky sentiment, not a genuine trend change.» Read More
China's stock markets are known for their volatility and not for the faint-hearted investors. Their movements can be rapid in either direction and hard to predict. But a close study of their performance charts have revealed some trading opportunities and the likelihood of a strong recovery.
Oil prices have been on the rise, in tandem with the improving global equity markets, as investors shift their attention from euro-zone debt problems to the generally positive economic indicators coming from the U.S. and Asia.
But an analysis of the oil charts suggests that the rebound is also technically driven.
The oil market usually shows a pattern of trending behavior between well defined historical support and resistance levels.
It's just a few weeks since my last note on the euro-dollar but I think an update is appropriate given the continued battering of the single currency.
I mentioned in the previous chart analysis that the euro could fall quickly to $1.03 once the $1.19 mark (a particularly significant support level in 1998 and in 2003) has been breached, which happened on Monday.
The fall towards $1.03 may feel like a freefall plunge, but it is constrained by other technical features.
The euro is defined by a series of support and resistance bands. The positioning of these bands is important from an analytical perspective because it provides a method to project the future downside targets.
When the Australian dollar stumbles, it often stumbles badly. This makes the AUD/USD a difficult trading situation because when a collapse occurs, the AUD tumbles quickly.
Investors hoping for a rebound of the Aussie to beyond the $0.90 level may be disappointed. Chart analysis shows this is unlikely to happen for awhile.
The dollar's recent strength has been explained by most market analysts as a result of the euro weakness rather than any fundamental support for the greenback. In fact, a closer look at the dollar's chart - particularly the dollar index - suggests the currency may be primed for a collapse.
The dramatic dollar index rise from 81 to 87 in recent weeks shows the chart's developed a dramatic and possibly dangerous parabolic trend. This trend has four important features.
The rapid rise in gold prices has pushed the precious metal toward a target of $1,250/oz -- a level discussed on CNBC two weeks ago.
As gold moves towards this target, the momentum has begun to slow in the rapid breakout, indicating a higher probability of a trend reversal or the development of a consolidation pattern.
George Soros and other hedging masters must be rubbing their hands with glee. Statements like “we will do whatever it takes” to protect the euro is an open invitation to short. The relief rally in the euro following the $1 trillion emergency package announced by the EU and IMF is a collective exhalation. Still, it does not make the underlying problems disappear.
It is useful to step away from the clamor of fat finger errors on the Dow, Greek riots and the euro slide and focus for a bit on strategic analysis, which is as important as tactical responses to these events.
Walloped is a good old Australian word which defines a cowardly attack or beating. Originally it applied to a beating at the hands of the police, or ‘wallopers’ who were recruited from the ranks of ex-convicts during the 1850’s gold rushes. Their favorite targets were the small gold miners on Victorian gold fields.
The term has been given new currency, but with the same original meaning Sunday, when Australia's Prime Minister Kevin Rudd unveiled a 40 percent resource “super profits” tax that would take effect in 2012 and would give the country one of the highest mining tax rates in the world. This reflects the Australian tradition of persistent persecution of success and gives new meaning to the term ‘sovereign risk’ because the terms of business have been so radically altered by Government decision.
There are three questions of particular interest. First, did investors see this coming and is it shown in the price charts? Second, what are the immediate downside targets for any price retreat. Third, what are the chart conditions which suggest the immediate reaction is an over-reaction?
We use Rio Tinto Australia as a proxy for large Australian miners.
Samsung Electronics,world's top maker of memory chips and flat screen TVs, reported record quarterly results on Friday, giving its shares a nice boost.
But whether the results were going to be good, bad or indifferent, the stock was always going to continue it's uptrend, based on analysis of its stock chart.
The reason for this is the stock's inherent steady existing trend behavior.
When the bears are right, it could sometimes mean a great opportunity for the bulls. This seems to be the case for Goldman bulls, at least according to technical analysis.
Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.