Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia. He runs training, analysis and resource workshops for retail and professional financial market traders involved in stocks, CFDs, warrants, derivatives, futures and commodities in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. He has his own trading company, guppytraders.com.
It has taken 16 months, including a significant retracement, but the Nasdaq has added more than 100 percent since the 2009 lows. It’s an excellent performance if we ignore the pullback from 2550 to 2100 in the middle of 2010. The key question whether the index continue its runup, or if another significant pullback and consolidation are a higher probability.
South Korea's Kospi index is a regional leader in terms of market behavior so it's recent fall below a key trend line signals other markets may follow suit.
The price of oil is rising and it is unwise to dismiss this as a result of the increase in tensions in the Middle East. These political problems have added to the upside pressure, but the oil price uptrend had already been set. If, or when, the political problems are resolved, uptrend is expected to continue, according to the charts.
The Shanghai Composite Index shows no distinct bias upwards or downwards so traders and investors can expect of prolonged period of sideways movements with short term trading opportunities.
The Nasdaq has been the leading indicator of the U.S. equity markets since March 2009, when the economy began its recovery. The Nasdaq leads and the Dow follows. So it may be worth checking the Nasdaq chart for clues on where the Dow may be headed.
The changes in the trend of the U.S. dollar are helping to push commodity prices higher. The impact of this is also seen on the NYMEX oil chart, where prices have broken significantly above the historical resistance of $88 in recent weeks. Tensions in the Korean peninula are expected to add to the upward momentum.
Nymex oil may have a prolonged sideways consolidation between $38 and $48 but charts suggest that, long-term, it has further to fall.
The euro-dollar developed an end-of-downtrend pattern starting in March 2015, but it didn't pan out.
The Shanghai Composite index's breakout move above its long-term resistance level near 3,400 signaled a bullish uptrend.
Chart analysis gives investors a method to decide if the Nasdaq's rally towards 5,200 is a buying opportunity or a sell signal.
Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.