Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia. He runs training, analysis and resource workshops for retail and professional financial market traders involved in stocks, CFDs, warrants, derivatives, futures and commodities in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. He has his own trading company, guppytraders.com.
Oil continues to be the front and center of investors' focus this week, with nymex crude surging beyond the $100/barrel mark as unrest in the Middle East sparks concerns about possible supply disruptions. There are six significant factors to bear in mind as we examine the West Texas Crude (WTC)price chart.
It has taken 16 months, including a significant retracement, but the Nasdaq has added more than 100 percent since the 2009 lows. It’s an excellent performance if we ignore the pullback from 2550 to 2100 in the middle of 2010. The key question whether the index continue its runup, or if another significant pullback and consolidation are a higher probability.
South Korea's Kospi index is a regional leader in terms of market behavior so it's recent fall below a key trend line signals other markets may follow suit.
The price of oil is rising and it is unwise to dismiss this as a result of the increase in tensions in the Middle East. These political problems have added to the upside pressure, but the oil price uptrend had already been set. If, or when, the political problems are resolved, uptrend is expected to continue, according to the charts.
The Shanghai Composite Index shows no distinct bias upwards or downwards so traders and investors can expect of prolonged period of sideways movements with short term trading opportunities.
The Nasdaq has been the leading indicator of the U.S. equity markets since March 2009, when the economy began its recovery. The Nasdaq leads and the Dow follows. So it may be worth checking the Nasdaq chart for clues on where the Dow may be headed.
Gold is showing the same fan pattern as appeared on the dollar-yen chart prior to the very powerful breakout in November 2012.
Will dollar strength continue? It's a question most effectively answered with chart analysis of the dollar Index.
The recent rally from near $1.05 remains part of the strong downtrend move towards the $1.00 support target.
The long, steady decline of the Australian dollar – and the Australian economy – continues.
Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.