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Futures Now Futures Now: Blog


  Thursday, 9 Jan 2014 | 2:39 PM ET

SocGen's bold call: Sub-7% unemployment ahead

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Investors are eagerly awaiting Friday's jobs report, which will shed light on how many Americans were hired in the month of December. And while most economists expect the unemployment rate to stay put at 7 percent, Societe Generale's chief U.S. economist, Aneta Markowska, expects the unemployment rate to drop below 7 percent for the first time since November 2008.

Markowska expects to see 225,000 on the nonfarm payrolls number, "but I think the interesting story will be the unemployment rate. We're looking for a 6-handle—6.9—so quite an important milestone," Markowska said on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now."

(Read more: Jobs report could show things are looking up)

The economist sees the unemployment rate continuing to drop throughout the year, which could pose a policy issue for the Federal Reserve.

As recently as in its December statement, the Federal Open Market Committee "reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to ¼ percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6½ percent."

»Read more
  Thursday, 9 Jan 2014 | 9:54 AM ET

What a coffee bull market means for your latte

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Coffee futures have risen some 20 cents per pound since early November—a 19 percent rise that nearly puts the commodity in technical bull market territory. But that doesn't mean the price of your morning latte is about to skyrocket.

First of all, November's $1.01 marked a seven-year low for coffee futures. Coffee has been under pressure due to high levels of production out of the world's largest coffee grower, Brazil. But supply is expected to be lower in 2014, particularly due to recent inclement weather.

December 2013 was "an extremely wet month" for many parts of Brazil, the NASA Earth Observatory reported. And rain can damage coffee plants, reducing output and consequently boosting price.

"We have seen quite a turbulent move to the upside, and that's because of some forecast changes," said futures trader Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial.

"We saw forecaster Volcafe tone down their optimistic estimates. A lot of folks have been thinking about 60 million bags [of supply], but what we saw in December down in Brazil is a substantial amount of rain, potentially damaging the product. Therefore we are seeing the forecast drop down to 51 million bags, and that really put a sense of urgency into folks coming in and buying it."

At this point, short-term price action is expected to depend on expectations of 2014 supply. But the broader story behind the long decline in prices—which have dropped from $3 in mid-2011—is that producers are finally growing enough coffee to match demand.

"Demand for coffee has expanded dramatically for four or five years, and it's taken a while for global supply to catch up," explained Jonathan Feeney, food and beverage analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. "Well, now it has."

Feeney pins the increase in demand on the growing middle classes in emerging markets as well as on consumption in the U.S. that continues to increase. But even as the price has plunged over the past three years, consumers have rarely seen lower prices.

(Read more: Starbucks makes its latte cheaper—and more mobile)

"Consumer prices have underpaced the drop, which is of course a boon to companies like J.M. Smucker that produce coffee," Feeney said.

Still, a lot goes into the price of a cup of coffee, or a bag of roasted coffee, besides the beans themselves. That's why coffee that trades on the futures market for $1.20 per pound is sold in Starbucks for $12 per pound, or by specialty coffee roasters like Blue Bottle for as much as $26 per pound.

"What you're paying for is the brand, the quality of the roasting and the selection of the beans," Feeney explained. "There's also a pretty healthy profit margin."

(Read more: Woman eats only Starbucks items for a year)

»Read more
  Wednesday, 8 Jan 2014 | 9:31 AM ET

This could be the year of the commodities comeback

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Commodities were not exactly the place to be in 2013. While the S&P 500 rose nearly 30 percent, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index dropped 3.5 percent. But in 2014, some investors are playing for that trade to turn around.

"I do think there are some reasons why you could be somewhat optimistic about the possibilities for commodities in 2014," said James Paulsen, of Wells Capital Management, who expects the asset class to outperform stocks and bonds in 2014.

"First of all, they got crushed over the last year and a half, and we kind of revalued the commodity market. So I think there's good value here for the first time."

On Tuesday's episode of "Futures Now," Paulsen said that his positive expectations for economic growth undergird his bullish commodity stance.

"The biggest problem commodities have had over the past year and a half or so is that there's been spotty growth in the world—contraction in Europe and Japan, a slowdown in the emerging world, a slug here in the United States at 2 percent," Paulsen said.

"You look now and that's a very different environment. We have the most synchronized global growth outlook here going into 2014 that we've ever had. There's positive and accelerating growth nearly everywhere. I can't help but think that's good for commodity demand."

What makes Paulsen's thesis so interesting is that his take on the global economy is fairly the opposite view of that held by many commodity bulls.

»Read more
  Tuesday, 7 Jan 2014 | 3:13 PM ET

Wells Fargo bear: Brace for a risky, volatile year

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Gina Martin Adams of Wells Fargo was Wall Street's biggest bear in 2013, predicting that the S&P 500 would close the year at 1,440 even as the market skyrocketed. In 2014, she once again has the most bearish target on the Street, predicting that the S&P will close out the year at 1,850—pretty much exactly where the index finished 2013.

But that doesn't mean she expects the stock market to just stay put over the coming months.

"You can easily make the case for stocks to jump 300 points this year, as well as to fall 300 points this year," Adams said on Tuesday's episode of "Futures Now." "I think the story this year will be one of greater volatility, simply because we are in this environment of chance in monetary policy, and it can go in either direction."

Adams, institutional equity strategist at Wells Fargo, says her call for 2013 was hamstrung by a misreading of the Federal Reserve.

"We had anticipated that by the second half of 2013, the Fed would start to incrementally remove, or at least taper back on, some of their quantitative easing programs," Adams granted. "So what we missed for the most part was that the Fed kept the party going all the way through the end of 2013, contrary to our expectations."

For 2014, "the way we back into our 1,850 price target is by saying that this Fed is going to be very, very hesitant and kind of keep the reins the best they can on financial market activity," so while the market multiple will contract as it typically does when the Fed makes policy more restrictive, "we're going to have a below-average contraction in the multiple," Adams said.

At the same time, inflated expectations could prove the market's Achilles' heel.

"In 2013, everyone was suggesting that growth would be kind of stagnant, and that set us up for a period of time in which growth could exceed expectations. I think the opposite is the case this year," Adams said. "Growth probably will incrementally improve in 2014. At this point, we seem to have priced in much better growth expectations, and that's the risk."

(Read more: This week could determine where stocks close out 2014)

»Read more
  Monday, 6 Jan 2014 | 12:30 PM ET

Sudden gold plunge has traders looking for answers

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Gold futures plunged more than $30 at 10:14 a.m. EST on Monday morning, before regaining nearly all of that drop within the same minute.

The swift move triggered a 10-second pause in trading, and many market participants said a single trading error was probably to blame.

"What has a tendency to happen if someone does a fat finger trade is that it triggers stops that people leave in," said Matthew Hoverman, senior trader at Grafite Capital. "There is a high likelihood that that's what happened today."

»Read more
  Tuesday, 31 Dec 2013 | 3:21 PM ET

The case for ditching stocks & buying gold in 2014

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Investors are likely to remember 2013 not only as a banner year for the stocks—but also as a miserable one for gold. With a nearly 30 percent slide, the yellow metal not only suffered its first annual loss since 2000, but its worst year since 1981.

Yet some strategists are contending that the secular bull market for gold remains intact. And in fact, for those who remain wary about the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, gold looks far preferable to stocks for 2014.

In gold, we've recently seen "more of a cyclical rather than a secular bear market," said Peter Boockvar on Tuesday's "Futures Now." "It's been up 12 years in a row—it certainly was due for a big pullback."

The outlook for next year will depend on the Fed, the chief market analyst at Lindsey Group went on to argue.

"The gold trade from here could be a question of faith in the Fed or no faith in the Fed," Boockvar said. "Right now, faith in the Fed is very high, as evidenced by the rise in stocks. But I don't have faith in the Fed."

In December, the Fed began to taper down its quantitative easing program, by reducing its monthly asset purchases from $85 billion to $75 billion. The stock market actually rallied on the news, but gold capped an already terrible year by dropping another $30 since that announcement.

Yet to those like Boockvar, who believe the Fed cannot unwind the program without stoking inflation, that drop actually provides a buying opportunity.

"I don't think the Fed can pull this off. I I think the exit is going to be extremely messy. Therefore, in my opinion, gold is a place to hide throughout that quote-unquote 'messiness,' " Boockvar said.

Meanwhile, Boockvar says that QE has been a "crutch" for stocks, adding that "the big crutch in 2013 potentially is not going to be there in 2014."

»Read more
  Sunday, 29 Dec 2013 | 5:00 PM ET

Why economic growth alone won't fire up oil in 2014

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Like any other asset, crude oil trades on supply as well as demand. And while an improving U.S. economy can be expected to boost the demand for oil, a stronger supply picture should take any wind out of oil's sales in 2014.

"Although the U.S. economic growth story might make it seem as though rising petroleum demand should lift prices, the uptrend in U.S. crude oil production is likely to be the dominant fundamental factor for the oil market in 2014," Tim Evans, energy futures specialist at Citi Futures, wrote to CNBC.com. "Four-week average U.S. crude oil production is running some 1.2 million barrels per day, or 18 percent higher than a year ago—more than enough to outpace demand."

(Read more: Crude goes on a tear after US stockpiles tumble in latest week)

"This is a commodity that's priced off of logistics," said Stephen Schork, the editor of the Schork Report. "We know that North America is awash in oil," he said, making the most important question how easily it can be moved to market.

Consequently, Schork will be closely watching progress on the Keystone Pipeline system (which he said is starting to resemble a "Frankenstein pipeline"), as well as on the proposal to build a pipeline carrying oil from Alberta, Calgary, to Kitimat, British Columbia.

»Read more
  Thursday, 26 Dec 2013 | 2:48 PM ET

If this happens, ‘get into your bomb shelter’: Pro

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 3.0 percent on Thursday for the first time since September. And while that didn't prove particularly hazardous to the stock market, Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial says equities will be watching yields very carefully from here on out.

"It's all about the manner we move," Kilburg said on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now." "Three percent to 3.25, that's not a big deal. But if we get there in a week or two weeks, that ferocious manner will really make people rethink their equity portfolio and their equity allocations."

(Read more: On tap for next year: Legit economic growth?)

The real test will come when the 10-year yield hits the next round number.

"If we see 4 percent on the 10-year yield in the first quarter of 2014, crawl into that bomb shelter, because that will crush every market out there," Kilburg said.

»Read more
  Thursday, 26 Dec 2013 | 1:59 PM ET

Dennis Gartman's single best trade for 2014

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Dennis Gartman says the single best trade for 2014 will be one that worked big-time in 2013: shorting the Japanese yen.

"Continuing to be short of yen against the English-speaking currencies—selling yen against sterling, selling yen against the U.S. dollar, selling yen against the Canadian dollar—I think that's going to be the great trade" of 2014, Gartman said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

Shorting the yen against the U.S. dollar has been a hugely winning trade in 2013, as the dollar has risen a massive 21 percent against the yen this year as the Bank of Japan tries to spur inflation after a long, painful deflationary period.

»Read more
  Thursday, 19 Dec 2013 | 3:13 PM ET

If this happens, 'all bets are off': Newedge guru

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Stocks may have sailed higher on the Federal Reserve's tapering announcement, but David Robin of Newedge warns that the structure of the tapering timeline means that if economic data continues to improve, the market will run into a serious problem.

"If we get a surprise piece of data, if all of a sudden in February we've got the unemployment rate at 6.6 percent and three or more consecutive 200-plus nonfarm payrolls numbers, I think all bets are off," Robin said on Thursday's "Futures Now." "I think that the Fed has opened the door to exaggerated reactions due to data dependency."

(Read more: Wits beat out speed in S&P's post-taper surge)

In its statement Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee said that the Fed would reduce its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion, to $75 billion.

The FOMC also made it clear that economic data will determine the pace at which that amount is cut to zero, saying that it "will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months."

Asset purchases are not on a preset course, it said, "and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation."

(Read more: Full text of Fed statement)

»Read more

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