Futures Now Futures Now: Blog


  Tuesday, 31 Dec 2013 | 3:21 PM ET

The case for ditching stocks & buying gold in 2014

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Investors are likely to remember 2013 not only as a banner year for the stocks—but also as a miserable one for gold. With a nearly 30 percent slide, the yellow metal not only suffered its first annual loss since 2000, but its worst year since 1981.

Yet some strategists are contending that the secular bull market for gold remains intact. And in fact, for those who remain wary about the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, gold looks far preferable to stocks for 2014.

In gold, we've recently seen "more of a cyclical rather than a secular bear market," said Peter Boockvar on Tuesday's "Futures Now." "It's been up 12 years in a row—it certainly was due for a big pullback."

The outlook for next year will depend on the Fed, the chief market analyst at Lindsey Group went on to argue.

"The gold trade from here could be a question of faith in the Fed or no faith in the Fed," Boockvar said. "Right now, faith in the Fed is very high, as evidenced by the rise in stocks. But I don't have faith in the Fed."

In December, the Fed began to taper down its quantitative easing program, by reducing its monthly asset purchases from $85 billion to $75 billion. The stock market actually rallied on the news, but gold capped an already terrible year by dropping another $30 since that announcement.

Yet to those like Boockvar, who believe the Fed cannot unwind the program without stoking inflation, that drop actually provides a buying opportunity.

"I don't think the Fed can pull this off. I I think the exit is going to be extremely messy. Therefore, in my opinion, gold is a place to hide throughout that quote-unquote 'messiness,' " Boockvar said.

Meanwhile, Boockvar says that QE has been a "crutch" for stocks, adding that "the big crutch in 2013 potentially is not going to be there in 2014."

»Read more
  Sunday, 29 Dec 2013 | 5:00 PM ET

Why economic growth alone won't fire up oil in 2014

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Like any other asset, crude oil trades on supply as well as demand. And while an improving U.S. economy can be expected to boost the demand for oil, a stronger supply picture should take any wind out of oil's sales in 2014.

"Although the U.S. economic growth story might make it seem as though rising petroleum demand should lift prices, the uptrend in U.S. crude oil production is likely to be the dominant fundamental factor for the oil market in 2014," Tim Evans, energy futures specialist at Citi Futures, wrote to CNBC.com. "Four-week average U.S. crude oil production is running some 1.2 million barrels per day, or 18 percent higher than a year ago—more than enough to outpace demand."

(Read more: Crude goes on a tear after US stockpiles tumble in latest week)

"This is a commodity that's priced off of logistics," said Stephen Schork, the editor of the Schork Report. "We know that North America is awash in oil," he said, making the most important question how easily it can be moved to market.

Consequently, Schork will be closely watching progress on the Keystone Pipeline system (which he said is starting to resemble a "Frankenstein pipeline"), as well as on the proposal to build a pipeline carrying oil from Alberta, Calgary, to Kitimat, British Columbia.

»Read more
  Thursday, 26 Dec 2013 | 2:48 PM ET

If this happens, ‘get into your bomb shelter’: Pro

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 3.0 percent on Thursday for the first time since September. And while that didn't prove particularly hazardous to the stock market, Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial says equities will be watching yields very carefully from here on out.

"It's all about the manner we move," Kilburg said on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now." "Three percent to 3.25, that's not a big deal. But if we get there in a week or two weeks, that ferocious manner will really make people rethink their equity portfolio and their equity allocations."

(Read more: On tap for next year: Legit economic growth?)

The real test will come when the 10-year yield hits the next round number.

"If we see 4 percent on the 10-year yield in the first quarter of 2014, crawl into that bomb shelter, because that will crush every market out there," Kilburg said.

»Read more
  Thursday, 26 Dec 2013 | 1:59 PM ET

Dennis Gartman's single best trade for 2014

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Dennis Gartman says the single best trade for 2014 will be one that worked big-time in 2013: shorting the Japanese yen.

"Continuing to be short of yen against the English-speaking currencies—selling yen against sterling, selling yen against the U.S. dollar, selling yen against the Canadian dollar—I think that's going to be the great trade" of 2014, Gartman said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

Shorting the yen against the U.S. dollar has been a hugely winning trade in 2013, as the dollar has risen a massive 21 percent against the yen this year as the Bank of Japan tries to spur inflation after a long, painful deflationary period.

»Read more
  Thursday, 19 Dec 2013 | 3:13 PM ET

If this happens, 'all bets are off': Newedge guru

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Stocks may have sailed higher on the Federal Reserve's tapering announcement, but David Robin of Newedge warns that the structure of the tapering timeline means that if economic data continues to improve, the market will run into a serious problem.

"If we get a surprise piece of data, if all of a sudden in February we've got the unemployment rate at 6.6 percent and three or more consecutive 200-plus nonfarm payrolls numbers, I think all bets are off," Robin said on Thursday's "Futures Now." "I think that the Fed has opened the door to exaggerated reactions due to data dependency."

(Read more: Wits beat out speed in S&P's post-taper surge)

In its statement Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee said that the Fed would reduce its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion, to $75 billion.

The FOMC also made it clear that economic data will determine the pace at which that amount is cut to zero, saying that it "will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months."

Asset purchases are not on a preset course, it said, "and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation."

(Read more: Full text of Fed statement)

»Read more
  Wednesday, 18 Dec 2013 | 8:04 PM ET

Wits beat out speed in S&P's post-taper surge

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Sometimes speed alone doesn't cut it.

When the Fed announced Wednesday that it would begin to taper its asset purchases, stocks momentarily fell before surging back, with the S&P finishing up 1.7 percent.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 18 Dec 2013 | 8:44 AM ET

The Fed will never end QE: Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

When the Federal Reserve announces its next move on Wednesday, some expect it to reduce its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program, targeting an eventual end to quantitative easing in late 2014. Others expect the Fed to begin to reduce the program in early 2014, or to finish it off by 2015. But Marc Faber has a different take altogether .

"The Fed will never end QE for good," the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "They will continue because these programs, once they're introduced, usually keep on going."

The Fed will announce its decision at 2 p.m. EST on Wednesday, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will follow that up with a 2:30 p.m. news conference. Expectations for the meeting are mixed, but more that 50 percent of Wall Streeters expect the Fed to taper its QE program in either December or January, according to the CNBC Fed Survey. As economic data have improved, many investors are guessing that the Fed no longer considers QE to be as vital as before.

(Read more: Fed taper expected sooner: CNBC survey)

But Faber said the good times cannot last.

"The economic recovery, or so-called recovery, by June of next year, will be in the fifth year of the recovery," Faber said. "So at some stage the economy will weaken again, and at that point, the Fed will argue, 'Well, we haven't done enough, we have to do more.'"

»Read more
  Tuesday, 17 Dec 2013 | 3:31 PM ET

Marc Faber’s shocking call: Go into cash

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Marc Faber is well-known for his bearish take on stocks as well as his theory that the actions of the Federal Reserve will end up crushing the value of the U.S. dollar. And that is precisely why his latest recommendation is so surprising.

When asked whether investors should keep their money in cash on Tuesday's episode of "Futures Now," Faber responded: "Cash, yes. I think the most hated asset at the present time is cash."

(Read more: Taper or no taper, the Fed will never end QE: Marc Faber)

This despite the fact that his monetary view hasn't changed.

"I agree that with the Fed's policy, cash loses purchasing power," Faber said.

The problem is that Faber thinks the market could crash, but only after rising further.

»Read more
  Tuesday, 17 Dec 2013 | 9:16 AM ET

Edgy bonds investors start to look beyond taper

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Most investors are split on whether the Fed will announce a reduction in its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program on Wednesday or in the first quarter of 2014. But some are starting to argue that the bond market is already looking beyond the first reduction, or tapering, and onto the future of quantitative easing.

"The market is anticipating a taper, and whether it's tomorrow, whether it's January or March, the process has begun," said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at the Lindsey Group. "So investors need to take the analysis one step further, and see whether the Fed is looking at this as a one-and-done ... or if this is the beginning of the end" of QE.

The market last predicted a taper in September, on the strength of guidance from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. But partially due to threats of a government shutdown and U.S. debt default, Bernanke decided to hold off. Boockvar says the bond market is once again geared up for a tapering announcement.

"The bond market, at a 2.85 yield [on the 10-year note] is back where it was a day before the Fed chose not to taper, therefore implying that the Fed has teed up the market—or the market has teed up the Fed—in anticipation of an eventual taper," Boockvar said. "So in the market's eyes, it's a matter of when, not if."

(Read more: Treasurys edge higher ahead of Fed meeting)

»Read more
  Monday, 16 Dec 2013 | 10:26 AM ET

S&P suffers bizarre late-night swing, more ahead?

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Traders are warning that many rocky moves could be ahead in the last trading weeks of the year. This, after stock futures took a massive tick down to a five-week low in late trading before recovering, with no apparent reason behind the drop.

"The market was relatively thin, and somebody came in with enough volume to move the market," said Rich Ilczyszyn of iiTrader. "Stops were triggered, and it kind of snowballed down from there."

The swift move took the S&P 500 E-mini futures, the Dow Jones E-mini futures, and the Russell 2000 mini futures all to five-week lows at 10:08 p.m. EST Sunday. Then, after shaving off as many as 11.5 points—or 0.65 percent—in a minute, the S&P 500 came back by 4 a.m. EST, and opened higher on Monday morning.

»Read more

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