Bank of America technician Stephen Suttmeier explains why weak seasonals and tactical complacency could mean trouble for stocks heading into next month. » Read More
After oil prices fell sharply, commodities sage Dennis Gartman said he sees the possibility for even lower prices.
WTI crude oil closed at $58 per barrel Thursday on expectations OPEC will keep its output at 30 million barrels a day. But even at that pace, Gartman said, there simply is too much supply. He spoke a day before OPEC on Friday decided to maintain current production levels.
"There's plenty more crude oil being found all around the world. I think it's going to be very difficult to push WTI much beyond $65 maybe $66," Gartman said Thursday on CNBC.com's "Futures Now."
The transports could soon drive the market sharply lower, warns one top technician.
On CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday, Wall Street legend Louise Yamada said that the divergence that is happening between the Dow Jones transportation average and the Dow Jones industrial average could mean a steep correction in the very near future.
"It's the concept of 'Dow Theory' in which the companies that make the products and the companies that transport them are supposed to move in tandem," said Yamada, founder of Yamada Technical Advisors. "Most of the time they do, but the transports have broken support and now we are seeing a kickback into that resistance." The transports are down 8 percent this year while the industrials are up 1 percent in the same period.
Although recent price action suggests otherwise, a slow-burning geopolitical situation in the South China Sea may yet become a flashpoint for market volatility.
The U.S. is talking tough in the face of mounting evidence of Chinese land grabs and military movements near its neighbors, and Beijing is defiant. The threat of a confrontation between the world's two largest economies hasn't registered on traders' radars, that may change, some say.
"Market mentality has a tendency toward complacency, and right now, geopolitical risk is nowhere on the radar screen. That could be a major mistake," Chicago-based trader Jim Iuorio warned.
"The developments in China seem to be moving in one direction, and although they may not seem to be a problem now, that could change quickly," he added.
The topic also found its way into the somewhat rambling remarks last week of former Lehman Brothers CEO Dick Fuld.
The disgraced executive, whose firm's collapse hastened the 2008 financial crisis, folded the conflict into a laundry list of geopolitical worries for stocks. These included Russia's military encroachments, and the threat of a nuclear Iran.
David Stockman has a stark warning for the world: Stocks and bonds are on the verge of a catastrophic collapse.
On CNBC's "Futures Now" Thursday, the former OMB Director said that excessive monetary policy has forced central banks all over the world into a corner, and as a result, "the markets are going to be in for a huge, nasty morning after as people begin to look at where we really are."
Stockman questioned the real strength of the economy, noting that despite the fact that the U.S. is in the midst of one of the "longest expansion or recovery periods we've had in the post-war period," we're currently in month 78 of zero interest rates. By his logic, the market has become far too dependent on the Fed.
The biggest story in the stock market this year has been, well, no story at all.
That's because, according to one top technician, the Dow Jones industrial average is on track to see its tightest trading range for the first half of the year ever.
"If you look at the high-to-low range for the Dow Jones industrial average for the first half of this year, as of now it's just over 6 percent," technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."
If this trend holds till the end of the quarter, Krinsky says it would mark the "narrowest first-half trading range in the history of the Dow," which dates back to 1896.
Silver fell more than 3 percent Tuesday as a strong dollar put pressure on commodity prices across the board. And according to one top technician, the selloff is just a foreshadow of what could be a major correction for the white metal.
"If you look at the price action in silver from the start of the year, we've been in a very tight range and haven't been able to break any meaningful topside level," said technical analyst MacNeil Curry on CNBC's "Futures Now." Silver is up roughly 8 percent on the year, but still hasn't managed to reclaim its year-to-date high of $18.50 hit in mid-January. The metal is also down more than 20 percent from its 52-week high of $21.63 hit in July 2014. Silver settled at $17.09 on Tuesday.
Curry notes that the inverse relationship between precious metals and the dollar should have given silver prices a more significant boost as the greenback has fallen 7 percent from its high.
"The fact that it hasn't been able to make any kind of headway despite a weakening buck in the last two months speaks volumes to the fact that the path of least resistance is still significantly lower here," said Curry, head of global technical strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
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