Futures Now Futures Now: Blog


  Tuesday, 7 Jan 2014 | 3:13 PM ET

Wells Fargo bear: Brace for a risky, volatile year

Wells Fargo's Adams: Why I'm still a bear
Wells Fargo's Adams: Why I'm still a bear   

Gina Martin Adams of Wells Fargo was Wall Street's biggest bear in 2013, predicting that the S&P 500 would close the year at 1,440 even as the market skyrocketed. In 2014, she once again has the most bearish target on the Street, predicting that the S&P will close out the year at 1,850—pretty much exactly where the index finished 2013.

But that doesn't mean she expects the stock market to just stay put over the coming months.

"You can easily make the case for stocks to jump 300 points this year, as well as to fall 300 points this year," Adams said on Tuesday's episode of "Futures Now." "I think the story this year will be one of greater volatility, simply because we are in this environment of chance in monetary policy, and it can go in either direction."

Adams, institutional equity strategist at Wells Fargo, says her call for 2013 was hamstrung by a misreading of the Federal Reserve.

"We had anticipated that by the second half of 2013, the Fed would start to incrementally remove, or at least taper back on, some of their quantitative easing programs," Adams granted. "So what we missed for the most part was that the Fed kept the party going all the way through the end of 2013, contrary to our expectations."

For 2014, "the way we back into our 1,850 price target is by saying that this Fed is going to be very, very hesitant and kind of keep the reins the best they can on financial market activity," so while the market multiple will contract as it typically does when the Fed makes policy more restrictive, "we're going to have a below-average contraction in the multiple," Adams said.

At the same time, inflated expectations could prove the market's Achilles' heel.

"In 2013, everyone was suggesting that growth would be kind of stagnant, and that set us up for a period of time in which growth could exceed expectations. I think the opposite is the case this year," Adams said. "Growth probably will incrementally improve in 2014. At this point, we seem to have priced in much better growth expectations, and that's the risk."

(Read more: This week could determine where stocks close out 2014)

»Read more
  Monday, 6 Jan 2014 | 12:30 PM ET

Sudden gold plunge has traders looking for answers

Gold dips mid-session then steadies
Gold dips mid-session then steadies   

Gold futures plunged more than $30 at 10:14 a.m. EST on Monday morning, before regaining nearly all of that drop within the same minute.

The swift move triggered a 10-second pause in trading, and many market participants said a single trading error was probably to blame.

"What has a tendency to happen if someone does a fat finger trade is that it triggers stops that people leave in," said Matthew Hoverman, senior trader at Grafite Capital. "There is a high likelihood that that's what happened today."

»Read more
  Tuesday, 31 Dec 2013 | 3:21 PM ET

The case for ditching stocks & buying gold in 2014

Forget stocks & buy gold in 2014: Strategist
Forget stocks & buy gold in 2014: Strategist   

Investors are likely to remember 2013 not only as a banner year for the stocks—but also as a miserable one for gold. With a nearly 30 percent slide, the yellow metal not only suffered its first annual loss since 2000, but its worst year since 1981.

Yet some strategists are contending that the secular bull market for gold remains intact. And in fact, for those who remain wary about the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, gold looks far preferable to stocks for 2014.

In gold, we've recently seen "more of a cyclical rather than a secular bear market," said Peter Boockvar on Tuesday's "Futures Now." "It's been up 12 years in a row—it certainly was due for a big pullback."

The outlook for next year will depend on the Fed, the chief market analyst at Lindsey Group went on to argue.

"The gold trade from here could be a question of faith in the Fed or no faith in the Fed," Boockvar said. "Right now, faith in the Fed is very high, as evidenced by the rise in stocks. But I don't have faith in the Fed."

In December, the Fed began to taper down its quantitative easing program, by reducing its monthly asset purchases from $85 billion to $75 billion. The stock market actually rallied on the news, but gold capped an already terrible year by dropping another $30 since that announcement.

Yet to those like Boockvar, who believe the Fed cannot unwind the program without stoking inflation, that drop actually provides a buying opportunity.

"I don't think the Fed can pull this off. I I think the exit is going to be extremely messy. Therefore, in my opinion, gold is a place to hide throughout that quote-unquote 'messiness,' " Boockvar said.

Meanwhile, Boockvar says that QE has been a "crutch" for stocks, adding that "the big crutch in 2013 potentially is not going to be there in 2014."

»Read more
  Sunday, 29 Dec 2013 | 5:00 PM ET

Why economic growth alone won't fire up oil in 2014

Into the futures: Best trades for 2014
Into the futures: Best trades for 2014   

Like any other asset, crude oil trades on supply as well as demand. And while an improving U.S. economy can be expected to boost the demand for oil, a stronger supply picture should take any wind out of oil's sales in 2014.

"Although the U.S. economic growth story might make it seem as though rising petroleum demand should lift prices, the uptrend in U.S. crude oil production is likely to be the dominant fundamental factor for the oil market in 2014," Tim Evans, energy futures specialist at Citi Futures, wrote to CNBC.com. "Four-week average U.S. crude oil production is running some 1.2 million barrels per day, or 18 percent higher than a year ago—more than enough to outpace demand."

(Read more: Crude goes on a tear after US stockpiles tumble in latest week)

"This is a commodity that's priced off of logistics," said Stephen Schork, the editor of the Schork Report. "We know that North America is awash in oil," he said, making the most important question how easily it can be moved to market.

Consequently, Schork will be closely watching progress on the Keystone Pipeline system (which he said is starting to resemble a "Frankenstein pipeline"), as well as on the proposal to build a pipeline carrying oil from Alberta, Calgary, to Kitimat, British Columbia.

»Read more
  Thursday, 26 Dec 2013 | 2:48 PM ET

If this happens, ‘get into your bomb shelter’: Pro

If this happens, 'get into your bomb shelter': Trader
If this happens, 'get into your bomb shelter': Trader   

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 3.0 percent on Thursday for the first time since September. And while that didn't prove particularly hazardous to the stock market, Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial says equities will be watching yields very carefully from here on out.

"It's all about the manner we move," Kilburg said on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now." "Three percent to 3.25, that's not a big deal. But if we get there in a week or two weeks, that ferocious manner will really make people rethink their equity portfolio and their equity allocations."

(Read more: On tap for next year: Legit economic growth?)

The real test will come when the 10-year yield hits the next round number.

"If we see 4 percent on the 10-year yield in the first quarter of 2014, crawl into that bomb shelter, because that will crush every market out there," Kilburg said.

»Read more
  Thursday, 26 Dec 2013 | 1:59 PM ET

Dennis Gartman's single best trade for 2014

Dennis Gartman: My best trade for 2014
Dennis Gartman: My best trade for 2014   

Dennis Gartman says the single best trade for 2014 will be one that worked big-time in 2013: shorting the Japanese yen.

"Continuing to be short of yen against the English-speaking currencies—selling yen against sterling, selling yen against the U.S. dollar, selling yen against the Canadian dollar—I think that's going to be the great trade" of 2014, Gartman said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

Shorting the yen against the U.S. dollar has been a hugely winning trade in 2013, as the dollar has risen a massive 21 percent against the yen this year as the Bank of Japan tries to spur inflation after a long, painful deflationary period.

»Read more

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