Futures Now Futures Now: Blog


  Friday, 17 Jan 2014 | 11:08 AM ET

Why gold’s great 2014 performance could continue

Gold has enjoyed a strong start to 2014, rising more than 2 percent in the first few weeks of the year. And after closing out the worst year since 1981, gold should continue to stage a mild rebound throughout the rest of the year, some traders and analysts say.

"I'd be careful to say just because one year's bad, the next year's good," said Michael Dudas, precious metals and mining analyst at Sterne Agee. But "the liquidation out of ETFs and out of the hedge funds in gold in 2013—I can't see that happening again given global fundamentals where we are today. … There's a lot more positive than negative to support gold in 2014."

(Read more: Gold poised to snap 3-week rally on economic outlook)

Dudas believes the cost of production for gold and Asian physical demand present encouraging signs, but argues that "the real catalyst this year for a significant move in gold is that we get any monetary velocity back into the marketplace, which we have not really seen since the crash of 2008. I think that fundamentally, that could be the big ticket."

In addition, the fact that gold has outperformed equities thus far doesn't hurt.

In gold, "the sentiment has been so awful, so bad," and yet "the fact that the equities don't seem like they're off to a 30-percent-up 2014 has really had gold holding here pretty nicely. So I do think we could grind higher from such poor sentiment levels," Dudas said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

(Read more: Byron Wien: 10 percent correction looms–here's why)

»Read more
  Thursday, 16 Jan 2014 | 1:44 PM ET

Hedge funds could start rushing into this sector

As tech underperformed in 2013, hedge funds shied away, favoring sectors such as health care and financials. But that trade could be turning around in 2014.

"Overall hedge fund tech exposure, as measured by long/short ratio, is the lowest it has been since January 2009, and by a lot," said David Seaburg, head of equity sales trading at Cowen & Co. "I think we will start to see money rotating out of health care into tech, which is something we have not seen."

In 2013, the information technology sector underperformed the S&P 500 by more than 3.4 percent, while consumer discretionary and health care were the top performers.

Over the first few weeks of 2014, it's been a different story. Technology is outperforming the market by nearly a full percentage point. And out of the 10 S&P sectors, information technology is one of only three in the green (although it is joined there by 2013 darlings health care and financials).

Hedge fund exposure to technology is far surpassed by exposure to consumer discretionary, financials and energy, Seaburg said.

"That could be an indication that they're underweighted," Seaburg said. As profit-taking potentially ensues in industries like biotech, which rose nearly 75 percent in 2013, "money could peel out of high-flying names and find a home in some of the underappreciated tech names," such as Cisco, Intel and Apple.

(Read more: Hedge funds lose out to stellar stock markets)

»Read more
  Wednesday, 15 Jan 2014 | 10:07 AM ET

Here’s where the real risk in the bond market is

Is it time to love one of the market's most hated asset classes? As the economy improves, fixed income experts are advising investors to exit shorter-term Treasurys and move into the much–maligned long bonds.

"The best value in the fixed income market right now is precisely where people have been leaving, and that's the long end of the yield curve," said Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock's chief investment strategist for fixed income. "What people have wrong is they think that the front end of the yield curve is a safe place to hide out. But if the economy does what most people expect, this is the riskiest part of the fixed income market."

Given that they are supported by the stimulative actions of the Federal Reserve, shorter Treasurys could be in for a rough ride if the economy grows as expected.

"If we are moving to a more self-sustaining recovery, the risk in bond markets always shifts down the curve," George Goncalves, the head of U.S. rates strategy at Nomura, wrote to CNBC.com. "This is especially pertinent given that long-term rates have largely adjusted already over the course of 2013."

(Read more: US Treasurys move lower following Wall Street rally)

The Fed has reiterated that even as it tapers its bond purchases, it will not look to increase the key federal funds rate until 2015. But the market may lose confidence that the Fed will wait that long, argues David Robin, co-head of financial futures and options at Newedge.

»Read more
  Tuesday, 14 Jan 2014 | 2:10 PM ET

Byron Wien: Here's why a 10% correction looms

Byron Wien, one of the most respected voices on the market, has a bullish outlook for 2014 but sees the rally taking a serious breather as euphoria turns to disappointment.

"What's going to cause it is that everybody's on one side of the boat here," said Wien, vice chairman at Blackstone Advisory Partners. "Almost everybody's made good money—maybe not 30 percent last year—but everybody was up ... and people are generally feeling pretty positive. There's almost a euphoric mood."

Wien said it won't take much to turn this manic high into a manic low.

(Read more: Why earnings might actually start to mean something)

"When investor sentiment is as positive as this, [the market is] usually vulnerable to any kind of a disappointment," he said. "There could be some earnings disappointment in the fourth quarter. And the geopolitical situation is still, in my mind, pretty unsettled. So you never know what it's going to be. But you do know that when sentiment is euphoric, the market is vulnerable."

»Read more
  Monday, 13 Jan 2014 | 10:24 AM ET

Why earnings might actually start to matter

The fire hose of earning reports gets turned on this week, with fourth quarter reports coming from six Dow components and 26 S&P 500 companies. And with the Federal Reserve looking to take a less active role in 2014, the results could start to matter much more to stock prices than they did over the course of 2013.

"Last week was noteworthy in the markets' response to earnings, in the context of a potentially less friendly Fed, which will lower the tolerance level for any hiccups in company performance," Lindsey Group chief market analyst Peter Boockvar wrote in a Monday note. "Those that missed were punished, such as Bed Bath & Beyond and Alcoa, but those that delivered were rewarded, such asMicron and Macy's. That seems perfectly logical, but we know misses in 2013 were mostly glossed over."

(Read more: US stocks little changed with earnings in view)

»Read more
  Thursday, 9 Jan 2014 | 2:39 PM ET

SocGen's bold call: Sub-7% unemployment ahead

Investors are eagerly awaiting Friday's jobs report, which will shed light on how many Americans were hired in the month of December. And while most economists expect the unemployment rate to stay put at 7 percent, Societe Generale's chief U.S. economist, Aneta Markowska, expects the unemployment rate to drop below 7 percent for the first time since November 2008.

Markowska expects to see 225,000 on the nonfarm payrolls number, "but I think the interesting story will be the unemployment rate. We're looking for a 6-handle—6.9—so quite an important milestone," Markowska said on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now."

(Read more: Jobs report could show things are looking up)

The economist sees the unemployment rate continuing to drop throughout the year, which could pose a policy issue for the Federal Reserve.

As recently as in its December statement, the Federal Open Market Committee "reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to ¼ percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6½ percent."

»Read more

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