Futures Now Futures Now: Blog


  Friday, 8 Nov 2013 | 11:21 AM ET

Whoops! Bonds get jobs wrong at the last minute

Tim Boyle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The surprisingly positive October jobs data that was released at 8:30 a.m. EST hurt the bond market, but it must have been especially painful for those who bought bond futures seconds ahead of the report. At 8:29 a.m. EST, five-year note futures soared to a nearly five-month high—before losing all those gains, and then some, to hit a three-week low. Ten-year note futures similarly moved much higher before dropping.

The move was so powerful that it led the CME, the exchange on which Treasury futures trade, to automatically pause trading. CME Group told CNBC.com that a "velocity logic event" was triggered, meaning that the market was automatically paused because of an extreme move. Not only was the five-year Treasury note paused, but the 30-year Treasury bond and the 30-year Ultra Treasury bond were paused as well. The 30-year was paused first, starting at 8:29:57 a.m. EST and ending at 8:30:02. The five-year note pause began at 8:30:01, and ended at 8:30:06.

The 204,000 jobs created in October, which was well above expectations, fostered perceptions that the Federal Reserve will reduce its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program earlier than it otherwise would have. As a result, bond prices dropped, and Treasury yields rose.

But at literally the last minute before the report was released, five-year note futures advanced to the highest intraday level since June 19.

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  Thursday, 7 Nov 2013 | 2:48 PM ET

Bulls, you are 'being fooled' again!: Fleckenstein

Bill Fleckenstein says that investors who buy into the stock market at all-time highs are making a grave error. Comparing the current situation to the infamous bubbles of 1999 and 2007, the noted contrarian and short seller says that bulls are ignoring fundamentals at their own peril.

"People are, once again, being fooled," Fleckenstein said on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now." "In the stock mania in 1999, people were bullish because stocks were going up. In 2007, people were bullish because stocks and real estate were going up. They didn't look at—Why are they going up? Is this sustainable? Is this healthy?—and in both cases, it was not."

In this case, the bubble Fleckenstein points to is powered not by tech stocks or real estate, but by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program.

(Read more: What is the Fed talking about?)

"Now we have the Fed suppressing the bond market such that rates are ridiculously low, and capital is being misallocated everywhere, and the price of nearly everything is out of whack," Fleckenstein said.

But he says the Fed is starting to lose control already—meaning that stocks could crack even if the Fed continues to buy $85 billion worth of assets each month.

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  Tuesday, 5 Nov 2013 | 4:54 PM ET

Bond fund manager: I hate bonds

It may be rare for a fund manager to talk down the very asset class he's investing in. But bond fund manager Stewart Cowley is so bearish on bonds, he's actually taken a net short position that benefits when bonds drop.

"The bond bear market started in August 2012, and frankly, long-term interest rates should be about 1.5 percent higher than they are today," Cowley said on "Futures Now" on Tuesday. "And that means substantial capital losses coming in what is a rigged market in the United States."

When Cowley says the market is "rigged," he's referring the to outsized role played by the Federal Reserve. The Fed has been buying $45 billion worth of Treasurys and $40 billion worth of mortgage bonds every month. This has boosted Treasury prices, and suppressed yields.

(Read more: Bond prices fall as US services data surprise)

But Cowley, who is the head of fixed income at Old Mutual Global Investors, predicts that this quantitative easing program will soon come to a close.

"The process has reached an end now," Cowley said. "The reality is the America doesn't need quantitative easing anymore."

»Read more
  Tuesday, 5 Nov 2013 | 2:38 PM ET

Why famed trader Mark Fisher is buying crude oil

Famed energy trader Mark Fisher says that given crude oil's recent decline and the overwhelming bearishness in the oil market, he's just about ready to get long.

"I think it's worth trying to pick a bottom and test the long side," Fisher said on Tuesday's "Futures Now." "Everyone is just bearish. The whole universe is bearish ... but I'd wait a couple more days just to inflict a little more pain on the longs before taking a stab."

Since hitting at high above $112 per barrel on Aug. 28, oil has dropped some 17 percent. And on Tuesday, oil fell for the sixth straight day to settle at $93.37—the lowest close since early June.

With the market getting hit this hard, Mark Fisher, the founder and CEO of MBF Clearing, spies an opportunity.

"I'm under the belief that you should be a buyer below $95 and a seller above $115, because I think we're stuck in a range," Fisher said. "And obviously I think that this market going down is giving you an opportunity to get long."

(Read more: Here's what will determine crude's next move: Pro)

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  Monday, 4 Nov 2013 | 11:00 AM ET

Why I just turned bearish on natural gas: Pro

Natural gas is now trading at the lowest level since August and is poised to break below the key $3.40 level. It has been a rough road for the fuel, but with so much working against it, things could get worse before they get better.

The main problem is that demand has failed to materialize in any sustained way. Looking at long-term weather forecasts, moderate temperatures will be in place for most of the country through November.

»Read more
  Monday, 4 Nov 2013 | 9:39 AM ET

Here’s what will determine crude’s next move: Pro

Oil workers North Dakota
Getty Images

Crude oil has continued to trade to new swing lows, and on Monday morning it is trading below the major $94.76 level. This is the lowest level we have seen since June, and at this point, the $93.71 level from June 26 will be seen as the next level of support.

So what has driven crude down so sharply from late August, when it made a high above $112?

First, any geopolitical tensions have largely left the market. Second, inventory data have been bearish, as we have seen a continued build in supply. Third, the knowledge that the Federal Reserve will have to begin tapering its bond purchases has led to a stronger dollar, and consequently hurt crude.

(Read more: Libya may deepen Brent's premium over US oil)

»Read more

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