Futures Now Futures Now: Blog


  Friday, 28 Jun 2013 | 10:05 AM ET

Buy Apple, Short Gold: Market Pro

They're two of the assets investors have loved the most for quite awhile—and this year, they've been two of the most disappointing.

Apple and gold are both down more than 25 percent in the first half, with the latter performing the worst. But Mark Dow of the Behavioral Macro blog said the two could follow very different trajectories in the second half.

"Apple is in the later stages of a bubble," Dow told "Futures Now." "Gold, on the other hand, is in the acceleration phase of an unwinding bubble."

That means that the two will trade differently.

Apple, he said, "is trading on the idiosyncratic factors of Apple: 'Have they come out with something new? Are they going to?' "

Gold, however, was pumped up because of a macro thesis that was simply incorrect, according to Dow.

"People were fundamentally wrong about the consequences of printing money, and they're just coming around to this realization now," he said. "It's not just the recent Fed actions. Gold has been going down for two years. It's just now that it's starting to accelerate that it's really catching people's attention. So gold, in my view, has much, much further to go."

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  Friday, 28 Jun 2013 | 8:46 AM ET

History Warns: Gold Will Keep Falling

Getty Images

If history repeats itself, we could see another 11 percent of downside in gold.

The metal stretched itself to new lows early in the Thursday night session, reaching $1,179.40. However, we are starting to hit oversold conditions: Four out of the five major technical indicators that we follow are showing oversold.

Gold has recovered somewhat in early Friday trading, reaching a high of $1,211.40 before consolidating back below $1,200.

(Read More: Three Reasons Gold Will Go to $800: RBC Strategist)

»Read more
  Friday, 28 Jun 2013 | 8:20 AM ET

Three Reasons Gold Will Go to $800: RBC Strategist

When you're right, you're right, and Edward Lashinski of RBC Capital Markets was right on when he predicted that gold would go to $1,225. The yellow metal hit his bearish year-end price target in Wednesday trading. So where does the director of global strategy and execution for RBC's Futures Group see gold going next?

"I believe that most of the headwinds that were present remain, so I believe ultimately we could go to $800 to $900 an ounce," he said on Thursday's "Futures Now."

He then went on to outline the three reasons that gold could lose another third of its price.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 26 Jun 2013 | 1:25 PM ET

Reality Will Clobber Japan: Peter Schiff

Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe
Getty Images
Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe

The incredible rise of Japanese stocks, and the gut-wrenching correction that recently ensued, have only one parallel for Peter Schiff: The dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and 2000.

In both rallies, investors shifted away from accepted means of valuation, and were instead "deluded by fairy tales," Schiff said. As tech stocks skyrocketed, "We were told that valuations, revenue and profits no longer mattered."

And as Japan embarked upon a policy of massive quantitative easing, "monetary policy was seen as a substitute for an actual economy."

(Read More: PM Abe Says G-8 Welcomed Japan's Economic Policies)

Now the Japanese Nikkei index sits nearly 20 percentage points below its late-May peak. But Peter Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, said it could get much worse.

"The Japanese government could quickly become insolvent," Schiff said. This would happen if Japanese bond yields continued to rise, for "if rates on the 10-year debt were to ever match the 2 percent of their inflation target, more than half of total tax revenue would be needed to service debt payments."

But Miller Tabak's chief economic strategist, Andrew Wilkinson, does not believe that Schiff's concern is a serious one. "My opinion is that it probably won't happen," Wilkinson said regarding Schiff's nightmare scenario.

"The nature of the Japanese bond market is that the majority of investors are domestic. So I don't see foreign investors throwing in the towel as being a big-picture driver here."

Beyond the intricacies of the Japanese bond market, Schiff and Wilkinson have a fundamental disagreement about economic policy.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 26 Jun 2013 | 11:45 AM ET

Traders See More Silver Pain Ahead

Gregor Gregersen, director of Silver Bullion Pte., arranges a stack of silver bullion bars.
Minshi Ahmed | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gregor Gregersen, director of Silver Bullion Pte., arranges a stack of silver bullion bars.

Silver dropped 4 percent on Wednesday, adding further losses onto an unbelievably tough year for silver. While gold has fallen over 25 percent, silver has lost nearly 40 percent of its value.

Traders blame the fact that the inflation investors expected the Federal Reserve to create has simply not materialized. Now, with the Fed talking openly about tapering, a major reason to own these metals has been lost.

"There should be a bounce from here, but micro, macro, and momentum are still to the downside," Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial wrote to CNBC.com. "The Fed has seen some decent data this week to support a tapering campaign earlier rather than later."

Rich Ilczyszyn believes that silver has more room to drop. "Hindsight is 20-20, but if you look back to when silver was $50, that was clearly a bubble," he said.

But like any good trader, he would get in at the right price.

"I'm looking to get long at $16 or so," Ilczyszyn said.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 26 Jun 2013 | 9:06 AM ET

Gold Will Break $1,200: Pro

Dem10 | E+ | Getty Images

Gold is poised to break below $1,200 on Wednesday. As we previously predicted on CNBC's "Futures Now" blog, gold stayed in check until options expiration, but after Friday's expiration, the metal resumed its selloff.

(Read More: Gold Prices Sink to Lowest Level Since August 2010)

On Monday evening, gold put in new lows, reaching below $1,250. And on Wednesday morning, we now see it just above our $1,221 support target, with a $1223.20 low. This is a fast market, and we have already seeing a bounce off of the lows—but we anticipate this to be short-lived. Our major downside target has always been and still remains $1,154.

»Read more

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