Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff explains why the Fed will backpedal when it comes to future interest rate hikes. » Read More
Crude oil is pacing for its worst weekly performance in the last three months as concerns about slowing global growth and a strengthening dollar have commodity traders hitting the sell button. And that has one group of traders very happy: short sellers.
"Open interest increased by 33,000 contacts on [Wednesday], so that's a significant addition of shorts," BNP Paribas' head of U.S. cash equity trading, Darren Wolfberg, said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now." Government data released Thursday showed U.S. supplies rose for the seventh straight week.
Wolfberg explained that when open interest rises on a day that an asset is down — crude oil fell 3 percent Wednesday — it means that traders are making new bets that the price will go lower. Conversely, he added that in early October, the increase in open interest was tied to a move higher in crude oil, reflecting more long positions.
"This is actually a good barometer to know the underlying flows of the marketplace," he said. When investors go short, they are betting a security or commodity will fall in value.
The Grinch has nothing on Peter Schiff.
On CNBC's "Futures Now" Thursday, the contrarian investor said that while Americans are wrapping presents this holiday season, they should instead brace themselves for "a horrible Christmas" and possible recession.
"I expect [job] layoffs to start picking up by the end of the year," Schiff said, pointing to retailers as the first victim. "Retailers have overestimated the ability of their customers to buy their products. Americans are broke. They are loaded up with debt," he said. "We're teetering on the edge of an official recession," and "the labor market is softening."
For Schiff, there is no one else to blame but the Federal Reserve. As he sees it, the central bank's easy money policies have created a bubble so big that any prick could send the U.S. economy spiraling out of control. And that makes the possibility of hiking interest rates slim to none.
Read MoreOil driving markets, not Fed: Cashin
"The Fed has to talk about raising rates to pretend the whole recovery is real, but they can't actually raise them," said the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. "[Fed Chair Janet Yellen] can't admit that she can't raise them because then she's admitting the whole recovery is a sham and that the policy was a failure."
It's been a tough year for commodities.
Gold, crude oil and natural gas are down a respective 6, 11 and 21 percent in 2015. Those returns have caused the S&P GSCI commodity index to hit its lowest level since the financial crisis. It's also on track for its fourth worst year on record, but according to one expert, there could be signs of a bottom.
"The ugliest month [of the year] was in July where every single commodity was negative except one," Jodie Gunzberg told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday. "But we had a major comeback in October; where more than half became positive on the month, and we've never seen that kind of swing before when so many commodities were down."
Read MoreOil surges as gasoline adds to rally
Gunzberg, global head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, noted there were two other instances in the S&P GSCI commodity index where a sharp rebound resulted in a short-term bottom for commodities. "In January 2009, 11 single commodities came back just before the S&P GSCI hit its bottom," she said. Gunzberg noted there was a similar pattern in 1998, where the space staged an incredible comeback off the low.
It's been a good quarter to do well.
S&P 500 companies that have beaten earnings estimates in the third quarter have seen their stocks rise by an average of 2.2 percent in the four-day period surrounding earnings, according to FactSet. That's double the 1.1 percent gain that earnings beaters have tended to enjoy.
Meanwhile, stocks that have missed earnings estimates have slid 2 percent from two days before earnings until two days after. In contrast, that's actually smaller than the average 2.2 percent decline.
Still, not many company have missed. Of the first 340 S&P 500 companies to report earnings for the third quarter, 76 percent of them have beaten estimates, FactSet reports, which is above historical averages.
Among the top gainers on earnings are semiconductor stock KLA-Tencor, which rose 23 percent in the four sessions surrounding earnings, real estate company CBRE Group, which jumped 11 percent in the similar period, and Abbvie, which rose 13 percent from two days ahead of earnings to Friday's close.
Stocks are starting off the week by taking a break from this month's substantial rally, amid disappointing data about industrial activity and consumer sentiment, and potential anxiety over the Federal Reserve's Wednesday statement. But despite these concerns, along with a "mediocre" earnings season, one economist said he expects stocks will continue to grind higher.
Jerry Webman, chief economist of OppenheimerFunds, said there's no way the Federal Reserve will decide to raise interest rates in the October meeting. And for a December rate hike to come into play, economic data would have to strengthen significantly.
"They have no reason to move rates higher at this point," Webman said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "I know they've got this lingering fear of financial stability somewhere being a problem. But they want to see the whites of its eyes before they start shooting."
And until central banks are well into tightening cycles, stocks will continue to see gains, Webman said.
Crude oil prices fell 2 percent Tuesday to their lowest level since late August as concerns over supply and demand continued to weigh on the market. Oil is now down 16 percent from its Oct. 9 high, and one expert warns the commodity could hit sub-$40 levels sooner than later.
"I think we're going to continue to go lower and hit $40 and then [retest the August low]," Andy Lipow said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now."
For the president of Lipow Oil Associates, the crude oil market will remain under severe pressure as diesel fuel floods it "With the Chinese economy slowing down and less money being spent on construction, China is exporting more diesel fuel," he said. "Those supplies combined with the robust exports of diesel from Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have produced a glut of diesel fuel and jet fuel," Lipow added. "This is just bad news for the energy complex."
Yet for some traders, the biggest worry isn't the volatility that could be stirred by the reports, but rather a fact about the market's historical performance.
Using data going back to the creation of the S&P 500 in 1957, technical analyst John Kosar of Asbury Research found that "the fourth week of October, which is next week, is seasonally the weakest of the entire fourth quarter."
Suddenly, the greenback is looking a lot greener.
The U.S. dollar index soared more than 1 percent on Thursday, hitting its highest level since Oct. 2. The move was fueled by the decision from ECB President Mario Draghi to leave interest rates unchanged and hinted at further easing. But some experts warn that traders should use the rally as a rare opportunity to get short the currency ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.
"I would be very careful buying the U.S. dollar at this stage," Kathy Lien told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Thursday. According to Lien, recent government data shows a lot more weakness than strength in the U.S. economy, which means the Fed's "hands are tied" in terms of raising interest rates in the near term. "The FOMC is the perfect catalyst for [a move lower] in the dollar."
Crude oil prices are down this week as uncertainties over China's economic growth and oversupply continue to weigh on investors. Oil is now down more than 10 percent from its October high of $50.92, and according to one expert, a "pile up" of bearish factors this week could spark the next leg lower.
"A meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries on Wednesday should end in disarray, leading to another round of selling," John Kilduff told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday. OPEC is hosting a special technical meeting on Wednesday, and while Kilduff expects it to be a nonevent, he does suspect it could result in "more protestation from Venezuela and countries getting hurt the worst," which will continue to put pressure on the commodity.
Furthermore, Kilduff anticipates this week's EIA inventory report to show another "substantial" number. "You're going to get a big crude inventory build in the weekly report. That's going to be a downward catalyst," said the CNBC contributor.
Third-quarter earnings season has begun, and the numbers do not look great. While 71 percent of the first 58 S&P 500 companies to report have beaten analysts' estimates, overall earnings are still expected to slide 3.9 percent versus the third quarter of 2014, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Those figures "blend" reported results with analysts' expectations of earnings yet to be released. Meanwhile, revenues are set to decline 3.7 percent.
But amid the apparent weakness, three specific industries within the S&P 500 Index are expected to see their earnings rise by about 50 percent year-over-year: automobiles, airlines, and construction materials.
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