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As the odds of a credit downgrade for India rise, the country’s banks could prove to be especially vulnerable, due to their significant exposure to government debt.
Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Asia Economics Director, Credit Suisse says the stand-off between the Reserve Bank of India and the government is worrying, adding that he sees a prolonged period of economic weakness for the country.
Jahangir Aziz, Chief India Economist, JP Morgan says that the RBI's pause was the right thing and that now is not the time for more easing.
"The problems in India are not about the interest rates being cut, the problems are the fiscal problems and also the liquidity problems, dropping interest rates won't increase the liquidity situation," Steven O'Hanlon, CIO of Fixed Income at ACPI, told CNBC.
The Indian central bank’s surprise decision Monday to hold interest rates steady may have sent the stock market and rupee falling, but analysts tell CNBC the Reserve Bank of India did the right thing.
Manoj Vohra, Director, Custom Research, Asia Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit, says India has limited fiscal space to maneuver and that the onus to boost growth rests on the Reserve Bank of India. The central bank is unlikely to sit on its hands, he adds.
Nicholas Ferres, Investment Director, Global Asset Allocation, Eastspring Investments says that Indian stocks have good value as risks are already priced in.
David Marshall, Senior Analyst, Asia-Pacific Financials, CreditSights said Asian banks have limited exposure to the euro zone debt crisis as they have not made substantial loans to the peripheral countries.
Prices for a range of goods, including cotton, copper and gasoline, have fallen in recent weeks, a sign of faltering demand. The New York Times reports.
Earlier this week ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said India could be the first BRIC economy to lose its investment grade status, which was followed a day later by data showing factory output had nearly stalled in April. While India’s recent dismal economic performance has investors looking for exits, several experts tell CNBC things are not as bad as the headlines suggest.
Leif Eskesen, Chief Economist for India and ASEAN at HSBC says political paralysis and the lack of structural reforms will keep Indian growth below trend.
Evan Feigenbaum, Adjunct Senior Fellow for East, Central, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations says that India-U.S. relationship has gone 'gangbusters', as trade between the 2 nations reach $100 bn.
Hans Timmer, Director, Economics Prospects Group, World Bank says developing countries will be vulnerable if there's another global financial crisis because their financial positions are now as strong as they were in 2007.
Sean Egan, Founding Partner and President, Egan-Jones Ratings says that India has been managing its debt "very well", especially when compared to other countries.
Dominic Schnider, Head Commodity Research, UBS Wealth Management, UBS Wealth Management says there is enough oil supply in the short-term and that production actually needs to be cut by half a million barrels. But he expects oil prices to remain high at about $90.
Global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney takes an annual look at which emerging markets are ripe for retail expansion.
Tim Seymour, Triogem Asset Management explains how investors can play India's weakening credit status.
Rahul Bajoria, Regional Economist at Barclays says India will need more time to implement reforms given that it has only been two months since S&P's last assessment.
Stuart Oakley, Head of Emerging Markets FX Trading, RBS says investors should focus on positioning in short term capital flows when trading the Euro. He recommends paring back shorts on the currency before the Greek elections.
Herald Van der Linde, Head of Equity Strategy, Asia-Pacific, HSBC compares current Asian market valuations with the troughs in 2008 and 2011 and concludes that there is a possibility of further downside to come.