People's Bank of China
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Stuart Oakley, Managing Director, Asian Currency Trading at Nomura says global central banks are punishing the consumers for being stingy. He also states his reasons for recommending investors to be short U.S. Dollar & long Chinese yuan.
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Recent economic data such as stronger-than-expected exports and benign inflation in September are the latest signs that China’s slowdown may be nearing an end, reducing pressure on the government to implement more stimulus measures to shore up the world’s second-biggest economy.
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China’s economy, forecast to grow this year at 7.5 percent—the slowest annual pace since 1999—may need more aggressive stimulus to prevent a steeper slide, but the state has so far resisted calls to step in in a big way.
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After passing on interest rate cuts in the last two months despite mounting evidence of a deteriorating economy, the Bank of Korea (BoK) will likely move to ease monetary policy when it meets on Thursday, to bolster an economy that’s expected to grow at the slowest pace since 2009.
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Chinas corporate reporting season for the third quarter kicks off on Monday amid profit warnings and earnings downgrades, but analysts think the worst may be over for Chinese firms, with the last quarter of the year expected to bring back some cheer.
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The annual Golden Week holiday in China is typically marked by chaos in motorways as millions of Chinese travelers hit the holiday trail, and this year is no different. The upside? The clogged roads are hints the economy may avert a hard landing, at least for now.
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In the space of 30 days, five major central banks round the world took turns to deliver aggressive stimulus measures in a bid to counter a deteriorating economic outlook and boost domestic growth.
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Investors hoping for more stimulus measures from China to boost its slowing economy may have to wait a little longer. Analysts say Beijing is unlikely to take any action until after the Communist party holds its congress on November 8, an event that is particularly significant this year because it will mark a once-in-a-decade leadership change.
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With China approaching a leadership transition and the economy continuing to show signs of weakness, the government will likely embark on a fresh stimulus program, Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday.
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The U.S. Government’s high debt levels are a greater cause of concern than those of euro zone countries, says Li Daokui, a former Chinese central bank adviser, urging the world’ largest economy to push ahead with reforms to put its fiscal house in order.
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China is at risk of nurturing “zombie companies” as the economy continues to slow and banks are compelled to continue funding failing businesses, warns independent economist and former Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia-Pacific Economist Andy Xie.
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China may be under pressure to cut interest rates and boost a slowing economy, but further monetary tightening would be unwise and China should keep credit tight in order to keep a lid on house prices, says billionaire investor Jim Rogers.
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Landlords of shops in malls and High Street across the region were generally unable to get higher rents in the second quarter compared to a year before. Analysts also tell CNBC that there may be more room for rents to fall in the second half of the year as retail sales soften in key markets as such Singapore and Hong Kong.
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Bill Smead, CEO & CIO, Smead Capital Management says that China's slowdown will be longer and deeper than anyone expects.
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Much weaker-than-expected trade data from China on Friday suggests the world’s second largest economy is slowing faster than anticipated and could prompt Beijing to take action in days rather than weeks to boost flagging growth, some analysts say.
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Chinese policymakers are likely to cut interest rate and reserve ratio requirements this quarter, JPMorgan’s Chief Asian and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist, Adrian Mowat, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday.
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Data released on Thursday showed the slowdown that’s been underway since late last year is accelerating. But rather than being glum, investors are betting on still more stimulus.
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Never mind the official data, China is already experiencing a hard landing, and there is no ‘silver bullet’ solution to the country’s economic problems, according to China bear Patrick Chovanec.
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Even as consumer prices in China rose at their slowest pace in 30 months in July, giving the central bank more scope to ease monetary policy, economists say policymakers will have to act real fast because the window for further rate cuts may be closing.
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The Chinese economy is likely to find support from a more active central bank together with a boost in spending by Beijing in the second half of the year - that’s the key take away from recent pledges made by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and policymakers to push growth, economists tell CNBC.
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China’s official reading of manufacturing activity might have dipped to an eight-month low in July but economists say the figure masks an economy that has already bottomed and on track for a rebound in the second half.