The UK GDP numbers last week were a considerable shock to me. I called that wrong without a doubt, I had been expecting 0.2 percent or 0.3 percent for the first quarter of 2012, in fact the number was down 0.2 percent. There’s nothing like getting a forecast wrong for knocking one’s self-confidence, writes Moorad Choudhry, Treasurer, Corporate Banking Division, Royal Bank of Scotland.