Some of the nation's top economic forecasters have gathered for their annual pow-wow in the woods of Maine to compare notes and reflect on the state of the economy.
Although the U.S. economy is losing jobs at a slower rate, unemployment could still exceed 10 percent, said Tig Gilliam, CEO of staffing company Adecco North America.
Everett Dirksen (late Senator from Illinois) used to think $1 billion was a lot of money. "A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon you're talking about real money" he said in a famous hearing in the 1950's. It now seems a drop in the bucket when you think about a $787 billion stimulus package and a $1.8 trillion budget deficit.
The progression of the economy has moved from a recession to a credit crisis to a financial panic back to a recession. The GDP numbers of last week encapsulate exactly where we're at: Q1 -6.4% and Q2 -1.0%. Due to the incredible sharp reduction in costs and inventories in Q1, earnings beat expectations by a historical amount and generated a massive up move in equities. It is truly a case of falling so far that everything looks up from here.
Better economic news keeps biting into the dollar, and it could for awhile. That trend is also propelling stocks, and on Monday, the S&P 500, the Dow and Nasdaq all closed sharply higher. They also all cracked big round numbers, with the Dow finishing up 1.25 percent higher at 9286, its first close above 9200 since November.