Interest Rates
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Housing sector most vulnerable if yields keep rising
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The dollar gained after U.S. consumer spending in November outstripped expectations, but gains were kept in check as many still expect the economy to slow in 2007.
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Today, the Fed made no change in interest rates—again. How should bond investors react to the decision? Erin Burnett had Bill Gross, the nation's largest bond fund manager, on "Street Signs" to find out. She also talked with Ken Volpert, the portfolio manager for Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index. It's the country's largest bond index fund and just hit the $40 billion mark this month.
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The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%--but left the door open for increases--if inflation persists. CNBC's Erin Burnett had two investment strategists, Bob Doll and Charles Reinhard, on “Street Signs” today. Both men gave their post-Fed meeting predictions for 2007: Buy energy and health care. And get ready for a 14,000 Dow.
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In an earlier post--we told you what former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer had to say about the Fed's meeting today. He's pretty confident things will stay the same. Many agree--that the Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged - at 5.25%. That's where interest rates have been since June. Even though official word won't come until 2:15 p.m. ET...
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Investors won’t have to wait much longer to find out where the Fed stands on interest rates. The FOMC announcement comes at 2:15 p.m. New York time (and you can see it live on cnbc.com). It's widely expected that interest rates will hold steady at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive time. More important will be clues the central bank gives about its intentions for next year.
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No one seems to be predicting any change in Fed monetary policy ahead of Tuesday’s meeting. But the central bank has its eye on inflation, so if conditions are right, that could mean a rate hike in 2007. Of course, what conditions will prevail as we move into the new year change from analyst to analyst. Sue Herera had two economists on “Power Lunch” today who both expect a Fed move later next year.
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The bond market is making a bold prediction on Fed rate cuts. It appears to be pricing in at least two cuts for 2007. Vince Boberski says even that isn’t enough. According to the fixed-income portfolio strategist at FTN Midwest Securities--analysts across the board are underestimating the impact that a declining housing market is going to have....
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This morning the U.S. Labor Department released its November jobs report. The data showed a bigger jump in payrolls, a slight increase in unemployment and tamer than expected wage inflation. So what will the Fed do with this information? They meet next week. CNBC’s Mark Haines explored the possibilities with Stephen Gallagher – the Chief U.S. Economist at Societe Generale and David Greenlaw – the Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley on “Morning Call.”
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The U.S. jobs numbers are out -- 132,000 new jobs – unemployment rate is 4.5% - and average hourly earnings are up 0.2%. On this morning's "Squawk Box," Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s.com, along with CNBC’s Ron Insana and Steve Liesman sifted through all the data and weighed in on what it means.
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As expected the European Central Bank raised short-term interest rates to 3.5% from 3.25% and ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet, has signalled that more hikes are on their way.
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Australia's central bank held interest rates unchanged at 6.25% on Wednesday, a decision widely expected in financial markets given signs the economy was slowing in reaction to the rate rises already delivered.
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In an exclusive interview on cnbc.com – Michael Moskow – president of the Chicago Federal Reserve sat down with CNBC’s Steve Liesman. Liesman spoke with Erin Burnett on “Squawk on the Street” this morning about the interview. Despite the down week of reports on the U.S. economy – Moskow is still concerned about inflation and fairly upbeat about growth going forward.
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ISM Manufacturing Data was released this morning. The index fell to 49.5 for November--down from 51.2 in October and signifying a contraction in U.S. manufacturing. Construction spending dropped by the most in five years in October--sliding 1 percent. Now eyes turn back to the Fed and how they'll react.
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The bulls and the bears are still slugging it out over the speech Tuesday by U.S. Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke--and if he was right about the economy. Stephen Stanley of RBS Greenwich Capital is positive on the speech. Joel Naroff of Commerce Bank was not.