According to the latest Beige Book from the US Fed, a number of businesses in the Gulf Coast region expressed concern about the potential impact on long-term energy production and employment from the deepwater drilling moratorium. The Dallas District was blunter, “contacts in the energy industry said the moratorium on deepwater drilling resulted in significant regional layoffs…”
As of last Friday, July 23, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management reported that a total of 11 production platforms, equivalent to 1.74% of the 634 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico had been evacuated as a result of TS Bonnie. In addition, two rigs, equivalent to 5.13% of the 39 rigs currently operating in the Gulf were also evacuated. It is thus estimated that approximately 10.4% or 667 MMcf/d of the natural gas production in the Gulf was shut-in...
Regardless of today’s DOE inventory report, crude oil supplies are more than sufficient, as we see in the Chart of the Day in today’s issue of The Schork Report. As of the end of 2009 total crude oil stocks in the U.S. (commercial + SPR) adjusted for population growth was 3.47 barrels. That was the highest ratio since 1993. If we extrapolate current inventories, then the ratio for 2010 rises to around 3.51.
Last week the number of shares outstanding in the natural gas ETF dropped by 3.3%. This decline is interesting given that it occurred as the front two contracts on the Nymex Henry Hub curve slipped back into backwardation. The decline in shares is peculiar given that it now makes sense to own the UNG in order to capture the positive roll.
This month the EIA released its report on the American Power Act of 2010 (APA) which was proposed by Senators Kerry and Lieberman on May 12, 2010. Though conceived before the Deepwater Horizon spill, the APA’s provisions seem strangely prescient in their move away from off-shore drilling.
Only one permit for shallow offshore drilling has been issued since June 18, effectively leading to an "unofficial mortatorium," Hercules Offshore CEO John Rynd said on CNBC Monday morning.
Since US markets re-opened after the 04th of July holiday, Nymex WTI for September delivery rallied from a 71.47 low (06th-Jul) to last night’s 79.42 high; an 11% rise in twelve sessions. As such, the spot market now finds itself on the precipice of $80 for the second time since the implosion in the price back in the first half of May. At the same time, volatility has collapsed. Bears, beware...
Henry Hub natural gas bulls entered this week at a critical point. This morning we are bound to see an extremely low injection into storage for last week; perhaps below the 50 Bcf threshold. More importantly, from a fundamental perspective, there is apparent concern in the market regarding the nearby availability of molecules.
Consider the situation in Nevada, whose main source of revenue is predicated upon gambling, to the situation in Louisiana, whose main income sources are commercial fishing and oil/gas extraction.
US commercial stocks of crude oil represented as a ratio to total private employment population peaked at 5.3 (i.e. 5.3 barrels of oil to every 1 worker in the private sector) in early 1981 at the outset of the Iran-Iraq war. This ratio began to fall as the war in the Gulf (“Persian Gulf” if you were rooting for Iran, “Arab Gulf” if you were rooting for Iraq) escalated.
Lately there's been a great deal of speculation concerning the Gulf spill and how it will impact energy companies. But what must an investor really know?
Talks between Apache and BP over the sale of certain BP assets to Apache have resumed today after hitting a rough patch over the weekend, according to people close to the talks.
In the wake of yesterday's (Sunday's) sub 80 Bcf report from the EIA, spot Nymex Henry Hub natural gas futures rocketed 7.8%. The knee-jerk reaction is not hard to understand...