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Historically on average, the U.S. Markets have been relatively flat the week after Independence Day, with not much left to cheer about. However, the Dow and Nasdaq Composite have been up ~60% of the time for the week following the 4th of July, while the S&P has been up ~70% of the time.
For the short Independence week ending Friday, July 3, 2008, the U.S. Markets ended the week in bear market territory with the Dow and the NASDAQ off more than 20% from their market peak set in October, 2007.
During the short holiday week, volatility ruled the markets, impacted by record oil prices, economic data, the auto industry and financials. How did the markets stack up?
The bears are out on Wall Street now, as the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite officially closed in bear market territory (down 20% from highs) today.
As uncertainty in the U.S. markets prevails, stock investors might want to take a look at the 2nd quarter performance of the winning sectors for companies that have weathered the market turmoil.
Stocks ended mixed Monday, capping a dismal quarter and first half marked by rocketing oil prices and battered financials. The Dow is down 14 percent since the beginning of the year and ended the first half about 20 points from bear-market territory.
The stock market ends the last day of the quarter flat to negative, the Dow checks in the 10th worst first half performance back to 1900, but commodities experience the best first half in 35 years.
There are 42 instances where there was negative performance for the Dow during the first half of the year (Q1 + Q2) back to 1900.
For the week ending Friday, June 27, 2008, the U.S Markets tumbled on low consumer confidence levels, battered financial stocks, interest rates concerns, and new record prices for crude oil.
The stock market ends the week negative by more than 3%, for the worst weekly performance since 2/9/2008 for the Dow and NASDAQ, and the worst weekly performance for the S&P since 6/21/2008. Intraday the Dow falls 20% from its market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9th, pushing the market into bear market territory, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ also close to a 20% loss from their peak levels.
For the week ending Friday, June 20, 2008, the markets dropped on disappointing earnings results from the financial sector, and a continued spike in crude oil prices added to investors' concerns over inflation. The Dow closed below 12000 on Friday for the first time since Mid-March.
The stock market ends the week in negative territory with all major indexes down almost 2% or greater, led by the Dow which dropped almost 4% for the week and broke the 12,000 level for the first time since March.
For the week ending Friday, June 13, 2008, the markets were mixed on varied economic news, renewed credit concerns from Lehman and the financial sector, and of course, oil. A surprise increase in retail sales gave hope for economic growth and a rising CPI suggested a potential rate move on the horizon that could strengthen the dollar and begin to tame inflation.
The stock market ends the week on a mixed note with the Dow positive on triple digit gains Friday, and the NASDAQ and S&P both in negative territory. The tech heavy NASDAQ faired the worst, down almost 1% for the week while the S&P was almost flat.
After another volatile Wall Street session, Dylan labels Thursday "a big fiasco," with the lion's share of the blame going to the Microsoft-Yahoo crash-and-burn. Any possible deal has been aborted for the second and -- very likely -- last time.
For the week ending Friday, June 6, 2008, the markets finished in the red as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) again crossed above the 20 threshold and oil surged. Stocks were impacted by continued economic concerns, renewed trouble in the financial sector, and a record spike in crude oil on Friday. Although it was a negative week for the markets, the Dow managed a 200+ point rally on Thursday for the first time since 4/18, after retailers posted better than expected same store sales.
The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all finished down almost 2% or greater for the week, the Dow closes down almost 400 points Friday.
May's employment report will make or break the market's momentum Friday. Traders say if the 8:30 a.m. report is in line with expectations or even better-than-expected, watch for the rally to continue. If it's worse, stocks will give back some of Thursday's gains.
The Utilities Sector continued its advance yesterday, gaining over 1% while the Dow and S&P fell for the third day in a row. The sector has been on a run since hitting a low in early March and has been one of best performing sectors in the past three months. Since its March low, the S&P Utilities Sector is up nearly 10%. Here are some of the winners...
Looking at the historical returns of the Dow for the month of June, today's swoon is not a big surprise. But are there rays of light for investors as the summer days begin?