• Schork Oil Outlook: What a Difference a Month Makes! Friday, 5 Mar 2010 | 11:24 AM ET

    Recently released monthly figures from the EIA (914-Survey last Friday and Tuesday’s NGM) underscore how fast the landscape in the natural gas market can change.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Balance Theory & Commodities Wednesday, 3 Mar 2010 | 4:45 PM ET

    Balance theory is (at its simplest) the concept that the relationship between two entities is either positive or negative and a combination of these relationships can be either balanced or unbalanced. Hamza Khan, quantitative analyst at The Schork Report, explains the significance of the balance theory to the commodity complex.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: How Long Can Bearish Action Hold? Friday, 26 Feb 2010 | 10:13 AM ET

    Yesterday the EIA reported that working natural gas in underground storage in the U.S. fell by 172 Bcf or 8½% to 1.85 Tcf for the week ended February 19th. It was yet another large delivery from a seasonal perspective, but we are certainly used to that by now. The typical delivery is 100 ±13 Bcf. Last week’s triple-digit pull was the smallest of the last three reports, but it is definitely not going to be the last.

  • Yesterday (Wednesday), Uncle Sam reported its fourth consecutive +2MMbbl build in crude oil stocks, with a seasonal 3.0 MMbbl increase bringing total inventories to 337.53 MMbbls. Unlike the previous report’s build, which came almost exclusively from the Gulf Coast (PADD III), this week saw PADD III’s 2.17 MMbbl build matched by a 2.16 MMbbl build on the West Coast (PADD V), while the East Coast and other districts saw <1MMbbl draws...

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Consumer Confidence? Not So Confident Wednesday, 24 Feb 2010 | 1:04 PM ET

    Energy prices were weak yesterday (Tuesday). Nymex Henry Hub gas futures tanked despite a paralyzing weather forecast. Meanwhile, weak U.S. consumer confidence numbers and a significantly stronger dollar ignited a selloff in the liquids. Last night, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a big draw in crude oil, a smaller net build between gasoline and distillate stocks.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: China Is NOT the Answer Tuesday, 23 Feb 2010 | 2:35 PM ET

    The forward curve for coal prices has seen a significant shortening in the last few weeks. Is proposed infrastructure spending — at home and abroad — beginning to cause supply concerns?

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Is Inverse Correlation Broken? Monday, 22 Feb 2010 | 11:07 AM ET

    Energy prices were mixed last week. The liquids were strong due to outages at the UK’s largest oil field and a strike in France spreading to six refineries. Interestingly, the dollar rose on Friday but this did nothing to temper the bulls, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Industrial Demand for natgas is worse than December. When yesterday’s (Wednesday's) Industrial Production (IP) numbers were released by the Fed, we were underwhelmed, and it seems the market was equally nonplussed: Prices were unchanged 15 minutes after the release and just 7 cents higher an hour later. Normally, the IP numbers are strong indicators and push the market in either direction, so what gives?

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Don’t Bet on Asia Boosting Prices Wednesday, 17 Feb 2010 | 2:04 PM ET

    Last Wednesday, some brave soul at the EIA fought through Washington’s snowstorm to release February’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA’s analysis is a valuable blend of hard data and fundamental analysis, with the only significant downside being its less than frequent release schedule...

  • On Friday Uncle Sam reported a second consecutive +2 MMbbl build in crude oil stocks, with a 2.4 MMbbl increase bringing total commercial crude inventories to 331.4 MMbbls, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Why Crude Is Yawning Tuesday, 9 Feb 2010 | 12:27 PM ET

    We place our “bias” as neutral because the recovery has not been derailed and people did find jobs, but several key figures are deceiving. The talking heads were celebrating a recovery in manufacturing jobs, which rose for the first time since January 2007. But manufacturing jobs have very little correlation with the rest of the economy...

  • Apropos the current strength in the market, the common refrain amongst traders and analysts goes something like this: I don’t believe in this market’s strength, but I want to participate while it lasts. Got that? Traders are so desperate that they are now buying, not on fundamentals, but rather on fear of missing out before this market heads back into the toilet.

  • Each year, "The Schork Report" analyzes the price inflation of Super Bowl tickets in relation to the price of gasoline. The price of admission to the first Super Bowl following the 1966 season “cost” 31 gallons of gasoline. Today, one Super Bowl ticket (face value) is the equivalent price of nearly 400 gallons!

  • Energy prices were strong yesterday — and how! The liquids popped after activist group MEND cancelled its ceasefire on Nigerian oil production facilities. Keep in mind that MEND can do, and has done, serious damage in the past. Meanwhile, natural gas prices rose after a snowy weekend in key market areas. As far as today goes, the dollar’s path could build or wipe out yesterday’s gains.

  • Schork Energy Outlook: Bulls Hanging by a Thread Monday, 1 Feb 2010 | 3:45 PM ET

    Energy prices were weak last week. Shipping disruptions caused a pop in the liquids on Monday, but a quick sell-off and mixed macro indicators led to prices falling every day for the rest of the week. Natural gas followed to hit its lowest close since early December. As far as this week goes, all eyes will be on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls number which could make or break the market for February. The Schork Report’s call for Henry Hub Natural Gas..?

  • Schork Oil Outlook: NatGas Should Be Rising—Right? Friday, 29 Jan 2010 | 3:07 PM ET

    Factory overtime, while stagnant in December, has been trending in the right direction since the spring nadir, as noted in the January 1 issue of The Schork Report. Better still, the nation’s blast furnaces are hotting up.

  • Stock Picker Is 'Very Excited' by Oil Tanker Market Friday, 29 Jan 2010 | 1:31 PM ET

    Now is the time to take a look at oil tanker stocks, said Omar Nokta, head of research for marine transport at Dahlman Rose & Company. He shared his stock picks with investors.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Crude at $95 This Year? Thursday, 28 Jan 2010 | 1:13 PM ET

    Can crude oil go to $95 this year? Of course it can. But consider this: Yesterday (Wednesday), the U.S. government reported that net commercial crude oil stocks plunged by 3.9 MMbbls or 1.2 percent...

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Is Chavez' Influence Waning? Wednesday, 27 Jan 2010 | 1:20 PM ET

    A deteriorating situation in Venezuela puts future U.S. imports from that country at risk. In just the last two weeks we have seen Venezuela: devalue its currency, institute rolling blackouts along the power grid, don the jackboot…again and cry crocodile tears for Haiti.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Traders Get Last Laugh? Monday, 25 Jan 2010 | 11:54 AM ET

    According to the latest seasonal outlook for the end of the North American heating season (February to April), the International Research Institute (IRI) forecasts a 40 percent probability that temperatures will fall into the coldest third of years throughout market areas in the Gulf and Southeast.