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  • Schork Oil Outlook: All Eyes on OPEC Tuesday, 8 Sep 2009 | 11:00 AM ET
    The Crisis: 1 Year Later - A CNBC Special Report - See Complete Coverage

    Energy prices were weak last week-oil markets started the week in the mid $70s, but finished in the high $60s. At the same time gas markets moved from the low $3s to the mid $2s. As far as this week goes, all eyes will be on OPEC, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Key cross-seasonal time-spreads...have been virtual freefall over the last month. In other words, the contango along the NYMEX forward curve is in freefall, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Let’s Hear It for the Speculator Thursday, 3 Sep 2009 | 12:09 PM ET
    DOE Crude Oil Production

    Theories of peak oil notwithstanding, you make prices high enough you will find supply to meet (and eventually drive down) those prices. Don’t believe us? Go ask a natural gas producer, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Energy prices were weak on Tuesday, the entire complex began the new month where it ended the old one, i.e. on an ugly note. As far as today’s DOE report goes, the crowd is expecting a net draw of 0.5 MMbbls in the major products and a draw of 1.0 MMbbls in crude oil. As always, you should take the Street’s guesstimate for what it is worth… not much, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: $74+ Crude is Overpriced Tuesday, 1 Sep 2009 | 12:46 PM ET

    Now that earnings season is over and traders return to examining the fundamentals (or, at least, stop ignoring them completely) can we still count on the dollar and crude to move in opposite directions, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: US Consumer Is Still in a Pickle Monday, 31 Aug 2009 | 10:32 AM ET

    One of these days’ gas and oil will converge. However, we are just not willing to bet on it, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: What Are the Odds? Friday, 28 Aug 2009 | 11:13 AM ET

    Open interest in the $10 natural gas strike calls for this winter have ballooned over the last two weeks… from 1,783 to 11,051 in the January 2010 and from 881 to 8,848 in the February 2010. With the respective premiums trading in between $0.05 and $0.06 at the time of this jump, this “trade” amounts to a $9.5 million lottery ticket.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Market Skies Are Grey Thursday, 27 Aug 2009 | 11:01 AM ET

    Liquids drifted lower after the DOE released what was, for all intents and purposes, a hum-drum weekly inventory report. Meantime, Henry Hub gas futures drifted higher.  As far as today’s EIA report goes, the crowd is expecting a seasonally small injection in the low 50s. That makes sense.

  • Crude oil values in New York touched $75, but then tanked, while natural gas values touched our $2.954 drop-dead value, but then moved lower.

  • This will either end up being the dumbest trade in the history of NYMEX natural gas trading… or the savviest. Time will tell.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Do or Die for Bears Thursday, 20 Aug 2009 | 12:06 PM ET

    ENERGY PRICES WERE MIXED ON WEDNESDAY… as such, it’s do-or-die for the bears. If they are going to defend the range, than it will have to be here. If they fail, the path to $75, $80, $85… etc will be wide open.  Meanwhile, Henry Hub gas is in the toilet, but that didn't prevent someone from coming into the market last Friday and buying $9 million worth of Jan and Feb 2010 $10 calls!

  • We are unimpressed and therefore unconvinced the bears have what it takes to impart their will on this market.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Are the Bears Running Out of Steam? Tuesday, 18 Aug 2009 | 11:39 AM ET

    We are unimpressed and therefore unconvinced the bears have what it takes to impart their will on this market.

  • Perhaps the recession is over, but has the recovery begun and if it has, does this justify Wall Street’s $85 oil forecast in today’s environment? Stephen Schork looks at the evidence.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Bearish Natural Gas/Bullish Oil Friday, 14 Aug 2009 | 9:53 AM ET

    At this point you have to ask yourself … why is the current economic picture so bearish for natural gas, yet seemingly bullish for oil? writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Ding Dong the Recession's Dead? Thursday, 13 Aug 2009 | 11:10 AM ET

    You know the fundamentals have been relegated to the backburner when the FOMC trumps the DOE!, writes Stephen Schork.

  • NOAA chart

    Are the bulls running out of steam? Could be? While their heavier counterparts in London have already hit $76, WTI in New York can’t even muster a serious run to $75, writes Stephen Schork.

  • The labor market is a lagging economic indicator. On initial signs of recovery firms will tend to call back laid-off workers and increase overtime before they make the commitment to increase their payrolls. By this measure, the answer to the above question is yes indeed, our glass is both half empty and half full, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Nearby oil is rising, but oil for delivery out into the future is rising faster! Contrary to the extraordinary popular delusions of mad crowds, this structure is NOT a bullish flag. So get over it, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Per yesterday’s release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in June U.S. personal income dropped 1.3%, while consumption (PCE) increased 0.4%.  However, PCE, adjusted for price changes, actually decreased 0.1% in June. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts more than accounted for the decrease in June as the White House’s (fast fading) “cash-for-clunkers” had little initial impact writes Stephen Schork.

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