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  • Per yesterday’s release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in June U.S. personal income dropped 1.3%, while consumption (PCE) increased 0.4%.  However, PCE, adjusted for price changes, actually decreased 0.1% in June. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts more than accounted for the decrease in June as the White House’s (fast fading) “cash-for-clunkers” had little initial impact writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Eyeing That Magic Number Tuesday, 4 Aug 2009 | 9:50 AM ET

    Energy prices were strong on Monday, crude oil prices in London and New York moved further towards the magical $75 print, while oversold conditions in the Henry Hub natural gas market ignited a peculiar rally - not unlike what we saw back on March 19th, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Caveat Emptor Monday, 3 Aug 2009 | 9:23 AM ET

    In the real world, with so many conflicting variables in play, plotting out the future path of the economy is a tad more complicated than looking at a line along the x axis of a Cartesian graph, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Wall Street Speak Trumps Reality Friday, 31 Jul 2009 | 10:27 AM ET
    Oil Barrels

    Demand, not only for gasoline, but for other major products markets as well, is going the wrong way... Thus, Big Oil is straining under the weight of poor margins, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: No Choice But To Run With The Bulls Thursday, 30 Jul 2009 | 10:32 AM ET

    Yesterday’s anecdotes released vis-à-vis the Fed’s Beige Book are not difficult to reconcile… In other words, money from the productive side of the energy complex is being, shall we say… redistributed… to the unproductive side. That is not good, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Bullish speculators have once again seized control of the oil markets… on the perverted logic that high energy costs pulls economic demand higher rather than the intuitive notion that economic demand pushes energy costs higher, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: The Bulls Have it all Wrong Tuesday, 28 Jul 2009 | 11:04 AM ET

    As we look forward to the second half of this year, earnings from Big Oil will remain under pressure. After a retrace in the first half of July to the low $60/high $50 area, crude oil prices on the NYMEX rocketed back and are now in position for a run towards $75… and beyond if you read the tea leaves… er… research reports, published by Wall Street’s best-and-brightest, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Urban driving, which due to socioeconomic factors is considered to have a higher degree of inelasticity of demand, is a potent indicator for general economic health, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Global Warming

    Oil prices surged yesterday, ostensibly, if media accounts are to be believed (they’re not) on news that sales of existing homes in the U.S. increased for a third straight month.  We will be honest… we had no idea it required so much crude oil to resell a home in the U.S., writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Rolling Back the Prices on Spot Oil Thursday, 23 Jul 2009 | 1:07 PM ET
    Oil Barrels

    The one thing that was clear through yesterday’s spastic post DOE response was the steepening of the forward curve, writes Stephen Schork.

  • writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Natural Gas Bulls Were Due Monday, 20 Jul 2009 | 11:44 AM ET
    Natural Gas

    Word on the Street has it that the SEC will approve the UNG for those additional 1,000,000,000 units the ETF is seeking… and at the same time government officials will continue to rail at excessive speculation in the market, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: The Bulls Have it Backwards Thursday, 16 Jul 2009 | 10:47 AM ET

    Energy prices were mixed on Wednesday. Natural gas futures in New York corrected following Tuesday’s peculiar rally, while the liquids complex rallied out of a key technical area of support. Thus, bulls rose to the occasion in the oil markets. Now the question holds… can the bears return the favor?, Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: 'Why is NYMEX WTI Still Above $60?' Wednesday, 15 Jul 2009 | 10:46 AM ET

    We think a break below 58.59 sets the table for a flush towards $50… where we think prices belong, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Oil bulls are hanging in there by their fingernails but hanging in there nonetheless. Yesterday the bears on the NYMEX did manage to breach the 62% retracement in spot WTI at 58.59, albeit briefly. The market quickly snapped back off that key level of support, only to fall again towards the close. As such, the market is teetering writes Stephen Schork.

  • Oil markets fell off of the proverbial cliff last week. Now, bulls are holding on for dear life. It couldn’t happen to a nicer lot, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: It’s Now or Never for the Bulls Friday, 10 Jul 2009 | 11:44 AM ET
    Oil Barrels

    If the bulls are going to put up a defense, this is where it will occur. If they succeed, then this support will act as a springboard for a second run at $75. If they fail, the path towards a $40-handle will be wide open.

  • Given extant demand destruction the current supply of gasoline is sufficient to see the market through to the end of the driving season in early September, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Oil Speculators-The Devil You Know Wednesday, 8 Jul 2009 | 3:28 PM ET

    Decreasing speculation sounds great in theory, but the law of unintended consequences suggests in could lead to even greater volatility, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Crude oil, relative to ample seasonal supplies of gasoline is still sky high. Therefore, the industry will still take measures (limit imports, reduce throughput… etc) to lower supplies, writes Stephen Schork.

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