• Last week’s surge in heating demand is apparently comparable to the long-lasting devastation wrought by Hurricane’s Katrina and Rita … despite the fact that underground stores of gas are currently 586 Bcf (+18%) above the five-year average

  • This heating season is getting off to a crazy start.  October was one of the coldest on record, only to be followed by an extremely warm November, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Are You Watching The 'STEO' Thursday, 10 Dec 2009 | 10:35 AM ET

    Energy prices were weak on Wednesday, the liquids sank on a bearishly construed inventory report, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Crude Oil is Dear, Products are Not Wednesday, 9 Dec 2009 | 11:07 AM ET

    As we noted last Thursday, we are growing uncomfortable with the precipitous drop in supplies in two key distillate market areas. For starters, the surplus of heating oil supplies (in the East – the largest residential oil furnace market in the U.S. – jumped by 631 bps to 45.1% or 13.4 MMbbls, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: A Day for the History Books Tuesday, 8 Dec 2009 | 12:47 PM ET

    Energy prices were mixed on Monday - Natural gas futures in New York exploded thanks to a favorable (short-term) forecast from the weatherman, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Now or Never For Crude Oil Bulls Monday, 7 Dec 2009 | 11:49 AM ET

    At this moment in time, traders on the NYMEX are showing no concern for the industry’s ability to supply gas to the market this heating season, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Before the bulls pop the champagne corks they should consider what has transpired in the market since September, writes Stephen Schork.

  • ). Imports are now on par to what we saw last April. In fact, outside of last spring, the only other time we have seen imports this low occurred back in the fourth quarter 1990 to first quarter 1991, i.e. in the buildup to oust Saddam from Kuwait, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Good News for Bad News Bears Wednesday, 2 Dec 2009 | 1:45 PM ET

    This morning the DOE reported its largest build in crude oils stocks since September, a whopping 2.1 Mbbls increase which beat out all but two of the fifteen economist estimates in Bloomberg’s survey.  Traders’ knee jerk reaction was bearish with a capital B, wiping out all of this week’s gains in early morning trading to push prices below $76.50 from yesterday’s 79.04 high, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: What's Worth Fighting For Tuesday, 1 Dec 2009 | 11:57 AM ET

    Even if the dollar rallies we would expect significant resistance around the $70 mark, fundamentally investors have put too much money on the table to give up the $70 barrier without a fight, writes Stephen Schork.

  • History suggests that we normally see a double-digit delivery for today’s forthcoming EIA report (the 47th of the year), but this season is anything but normal, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Mission Impossible For The Bears? Monday, 23 Nov 2009 | 10:42 AM ET

    The latest forecast is calling for some extreme cold in the 6-10 day outlook. This is the forecast the gas bulls have been waiting for, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Some New Hope For Nat Gas Bulls Friday, 20 Nov 2009 | 1:27 PM ET
    Natural Gas

    The latest outlook provides some hope for bulls. NOAA is forecasting below normal temps towards the end of this month and into the beginning of December in the Mid-Atlantic market. Normal temps are expected in the New England and Midwest markets. It’s not much, but that is all the bulls really have to go on at this time, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Energy prices were mixed on Wednesday-the liquids fell off intra-day highs after the bulls failed to excite post DOE bullish momentum, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Yesterday’s DOE report was bearish, but that is nothing new. The trend in these reports has been bearish for quite some time now. We would like to think that yesterday’s weakness on the NYMEX could be attributable to the DOE report. But, that would be quite Pollyannaish of us now wouldn’t it, writes Stephen Schork.

  • In a push for greater transparency in trading, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders tell us how many contracts were traded by commercial and non-commercial players, i.e. speculators. The assumption being that price movements are dependent upon the number and type of trades, writes Stephen Schork.

  • After toying with support inside the October 15th pivot-low (77.67 to 76.86) over the last three weeks, the crude oil bears in New York finally stamped their imprimatur on this market on Friday… sort of, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork: Nat Gas Bulls Need a Snow Day Thursday, 12 Nov 2009 | 10:32 AM ET
    Natural Gas

    As we look ahead to this winter, the latest forecast from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), is calling for a cold winter in the Eastern U.S., down through east Texas, a normal winter in the Midwest, out through the Rockies and into California, but a warm winter through the Pacific Northwest and Plains and through all of Canada, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Nat Gas Bulls Didn’t Stand A Chance Wednesday, 11 Nov 2009 | 10:32 AM ET
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    Yesterday was a bad day for anyone long the December natural gas contract, which closed down 4.3% at 4.467, the lowest close for the December ’09 contract ever (i.e. since 2003), writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: More Strength in Crude Tuesday, 10 Nov 2009 | 9:47 AM ET

    The correlation between crude oil prices and the unemployment rate is slightly positive in the short term, and largely positive five or six quarters later, writes Stephen Schork.