CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets. Crude was up after a stronger-than-expected jobs report; gold prices were weaker for the same reason; and natural gas was off slightly on the day.» Read More
Given these fundamentals it is awfully hard to get bullish natural gas… which of course means, it is probably an excellent time to get bullish natural gas, writes Stephen Schork.
As we analyze in today’s issue of The Schork Report, nothing changed last week. The report was bearish. Per yesterday’s numbers, transportation fuels fell, but the draw was well below the norm, heating fuels rose and stocks of commercial and government crude oil surged, writes Stephen Schork.
The futures markets, both in London and New York are behaving accordingly, i.e. spot barrels are being discounted. That is the clearest signal possible that seasonal demand, relative to supply is (and will remain) weak, writes Stephen Schork.
Energy pricecs were weak at the start of this week - Crude oil bulls in New York and London failed to parlay last week’s strong close, while Henry Hub natural gas bulls demonstrated, once again, their inability to trade their way out of a paper bag, writes Stephen Schork.
This year the market is in a steep contango ....in other words, the market is simply not concerned regarding supplies this summer, writes Stephen Schork.
"Energy prices were weak on Wednesday as bulls had to step out of the way following yesterday’s supremely bearish inventory report. If the bulls cannot defend this area then we will be back to sub $40 crude oil quicker than you can say T. Boone Pickens," writes Stephen Schork.
Shares for three quarters of the BRIC countries posted impressive returns in the first quarter. Be that as it may, global demand for this year remains suspect. As such, the world is (and will remain) oversupplied with oil. Thus, from a macro viewpoint oil bulls are still fighting an uphill battle, writes Stephen Schork.
As ridiculous as that three minute spike back on March 19th was, there was someone out their willing to spin a case for it. And, if that someone had deep enough pockets (think Amaranth or USO) than just by their sheer mass they were in position to enforce their will on the market.
Sharp reductions in investments and low oil prices could curb future supplies by almost eight million barrels a day within the next five years, according to a study scheduled for release Friday, the latest warning that the world could face a new energy shock when the economy picks up.
With global demand in the doldrums and the world swimming in oil, the current price run in oil is an aberration. We do not think it will last… in a logical world, writes Stephen Schork.
In a real commodities’ bull market, i.e. a market defined by strong demand relative to supply, the front of the curve typically flattens and eventually moves to backwardation. That is not what we have been seeing over the last week. That suggests some force other than near-term fundamentals are driving the current “strength” in New York.
It was a week in which we saw Fed Chairman Bernanke on 60 Minutes and President Obama on The Tonight Show. Does the appearance of these leaders in these mediums demean their respective positions? Guess not. The market loved it, writes Stephen Schork.
We take note that the current administration has no qualms about maintaining the previous administration’s tax on importing fuels that are allegedly good for the environment., writes Stephen Schork.
We are not going to see a bullish report this week. But, then again, we did not see a bullish report last week… and a lot of good that did us bears, writes Stephen Schork.
If anyone tells you they have a rational explanation for what happened in the wake of the EIA report, you should immediately dismiss them. They are obviously lying to you or they are psychotic, writes Stephen Schork.
Energy prices were mixed yesterday … liquids markets tanked in knee-jerk fashion following yesterday’s DOE report. Don’t get us wrong, the market’s initial reaction was correct. That was a bearish report. Our only concern is the recovery towards the end of the pit session.
As far as today’s DOE report is concerned, the crowd is expecting a net decline in the major products and an increase in crude oil. As always, you should take the Street’s guestimate for what it is worth… not much.
There is nothing bullish about the NYMEX natural gas market, yesterday the spot contract cratered towards a life-of-contract low.
Mr. Sechin proposed the establishment a new oil and refined products trading system and for a move to a multicurrency basket for payments of oil. This would appear to be a direct threat to the NYMEX and ICE franchises, writes Stephen Schork.
The implication of a commodity market in contango is that demand, relative to supply in the spot market is weak. As such, it makes sense for me to buy oil today and store it, writes Stephen Schork.