CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets. Energy was lower on both sides of the Atlantic, nat gas was down again today, as temps remained mild across the country. And gold was flat on the day.» Read More
We think a break below 58.59 sets the table for a flush towards $50… where we think prices belong, writes Stephen Schork.
Oil bulls are hanging in there by their fingernails but hanging in there nonetheless. Yesterday the bears on the NYMEX did manage to breach the 62% retracement in spot WTI at 58.59, albeit briefly. The market quickly snapped back off that key level of support, only to fall again towards the close. As such, the market is teetering writes Stephen Schork.
Oil markets fell off of the proverbial cliff last week. Now, bulls are holding on for dear life. It couldn’t happen to a nicer lot, writes Stephen Schork.
If the bulls are going to put up a defense, this is where it will occur. If they succeed, then this support will act as a springboard for a second run at $75. If they fail, the path towards a $40-handle will be wide open.
Given extant demand destruction the current supply of gasoline is sufficient to see the market through to the end of the driving season in early September, writes Stephen Schork.
Decreasing speculation sounds great in theory, but the law of unintended consequences suggests in could lead to even greater volatility, writes Stephen Schork.
Crude oil, relative to ample seasonal supplies of gasoline is still sky high. Therefore, the industry will still take measures (limit imports, reduce throughput… etc) to lower supplies, writes Stephen Schork.
Energy prices were weak on Monday, as the bottom fell out from underneath the entire complex. As such, the bulls, for the first time in months, now have to play defense. Failure in the oil markets to hold support here clears a path towards the $60 critical point of reference; while in natural gas a $2-handle is actually in the realm of possibilities, writes Stephen Schork.
Traders are so desperate that they are now buying, not on fundamentals, but rather on fear of missing out before this market heads back into the toilet, writes Stephen Schork.
Improvement in the "second derivative" is no longer acceptable. We will soon have to have outright good news, in my opinion, to move the markets.
What’s today’s story? Uh… less bad is good. They obviously do not make bullish stories like they used to. But, then again, crude oil wasn’t an inflation hedge in 1990, writes Stephen Schork.
The market is still discounting spot barrels. That means the market is still discounting nearby demand prospects, which means there is no real excuse for yesterday’s end-of-quarter spike other than the notion that the… end-of-the-quarter …was the reason for the spike, writes Stephen Schork.
We will still have to hold a bullish bias in our mid-term (weekly) bias based on the technicals, but given the recent bullish news/middling action we have seen, our intermediate bearish bias is gaining legs, writes Stephen Schork.
Underground caverns, mines and aquifers are brimming, writes Stephen Schork.
We remain cautiously optimistic this market has (finally) entered a topping phase… volatility and the direction in the U.S. dollar notwithstanding, writes Stephen Schork.
As such, the dollar tanked (sell the rumor, buy the…?) yesterday and crude oil moved accordingly. Thus, as far as today goes, traders will looking to the Fed, rather than the DOE to ascertain crude oil’s path. How pathetic is that?, writes Stephen Schork.
Telltales appear that a correction in crude oil is imminent. Over the last week we have received a number a queries regarding the impact of the ongoing civil unrest in Iran to crude oil prices. Our response has been… it has yet to matter. Spot August WTI is off 8% from recent highs, despite the headlines from Iran. Is this a case of good news/bad action? It certainly smells that way, writes Stephen Schork.
While crude oil has rallied, natural gas has stumbled. Therefore, the models suggested a reasonable probability existed that natural gas would either “catch up” to crude oil or that crude oil would regress to natural gas, writes Stephen Schork.
There is now more gas in the ground than at the start of last winter’s heating season,writes Stephen Schork.
Even if the recession has ended or is about to end, that does not mean demand is about to resume. It just means demand has stopped falling, writes Stephen Schork.