• This will either end up being the dumbest trade in the history of NYMEX natural gas trading… or the savviest. Time will tell.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Do or Die for Bears Thursday, 20 Aug 2009 | 12:06 PM ET

    ENERGY PRICES WERE MIXED ON WEDNESDAY… as such, it’s do-or-die for the bears. If they are going to defend the range, than it will have to be here. If they fail, the path to $75, $80, $85… etc will be wide open.  Meanwhile, Henry Hub gas is in the toilet, but that didn't prevent someone from coming into the market last Friday and buying $9 million worth of Jan and Feb 2010 $10 calls!

  • We are unimpressed and therefore unconvinced the bears have what it takes to impart their will on this market.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Are the Bears Running Out of Steam? Tuesday, 18 Aug 2009 | 11:39 AM ET

    We are unimpressed and therefore unconvinced the bears have what it takes to impart their will on this market.

  • Perhaps the recession is over, but has the recovery begun and if it has, does this justify Wall Street’s $85 oil forecast in today’s environment? Stephen Schork looks at the evidence.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Bearish Natural Gas/Bullish Oil Friday, 14 Aug 2009 | 9:53 AM ET

    At this point you have to ask yourself … why is the current economic picture so bearish for natural gas, yet seemingly bullish for oil? writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Ding Dong the Recession's Dead? Thursday, 13 Aug 2009 | 11:10 AM ET

    You know the fundamentals have been relegated to the backburner when the FOMC trumps the DOE!, writes Stephen Schork.

  • NOAA chart

    Are the bulls running out of steam? Could be? While their heavier counterparts in London have already hit $76, WTI in New York can’t even muster a serious run to $75, writes Stephen Schork.

  • The labor market is a lagging economic indicator. On initial signs of recovery firms will tend to call back laid-off workers and increase overtime before they make the commitment to increase their payrolls. By this measure, the answer to the above question is yes indeed, our glass is both half empty and half full, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Nearby oil is rising, but oil for delivery out into the future is rising faster! Contrary to the extraordinary popular delusions of mad crowds, this structure is NOT a bullish flag. So get over it, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Per yesterday’s release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in June U.S. personal income dropped 1.3%, while consumption (PCE) increased 0.4%.  However, PCE, adjusted for price changes, actually decreased 0.1% in June. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts more than accounted for the decrease in June as the White House’s (fast fading) “cash-for-clunkers” had little initial impact writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Eyeing That Magic Number Tuesday, 4 Aug 2009 | 9:50 AM ET

    Energy prices were strong on Monday, crude oil prices in London and New York moved further towards the magical $75 print, while oversold conditions in the Henry Hub natural gas market ignited a peculiar rally - not unlike what we saw back on March 19th, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Caveat Emptor Monday, 3 Aug 2009 | 9:23 AM ET

    In the real world, with so many conflicting variables in play, plotting out the future path of the economy is a tad more complicated than looking at a line along the x axis of a Cartesian graph, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Wall Street Speak Trumps Reality Friday, 31 Jul 2009 | 10:27 AM ET
    Oil Barrels

    Demand, not only for gasoline, but for other major products markets as well, is going the wrong way... Thus, Big Oil is straining under the weight of poor margins, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: No Choice But To Run With The Bulls Thursday, 30 Jul 2009 | 10:32 AM ET

    Yesterday’s anecdotes released vis-à-vis the Fed’s Beige Book are not difficult to reconcile… In other words, money from the productive side of the energy complex is being, shall we say… redistributed… to the unproductive side. That is not good, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Bullish speculators have once again seized control of the oil markets… on the perverted logic that high energy costs pulls economic demand higher rather than the intuitive notion that economic demand pushes energy costs higher, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: The Bulls Have it all Wrong Tuesday, 28 Jul 2009 | 11:04 AM ET

    As we look forward to the second half of this year, earnings from Big Oil will remain under pressure. After a retrace in the first half of July to the low $60/high $50 area, crude oil prices on the NYMEX rocketed back and are now in position for a run towards $75… and beyond if you read the tea leaves… er… research reports, published by Wall Street’s best-and-brightest, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Urban driving, which due to socioeconomic factors is considered to have a higher degree of inelasticity of demand, is a potent indicator for general economic health, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Global Warming

    Oil prices surged yesterday, ostensibly, if media accounts are to be believed (they’re not) on news that sales of existing homes in the U.S. increased for a third straight month.  We will be honest… we had no idea it required so much crude oil to resell a home in the U.S., writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Rolling Back the Prices on Spot Oil Thursday, 23 Jul 2009 | 1:07 PM ET
    Oil Barrels

    The one thing that was clear through yesterday’s spastic post DOE response was the steepening of the forward curve, writes Stephen Schork.