I woke up Wednesday morning in Washington DC, where economic crisis, which in turn means political crisis, was in the air. Fed Chairman Bernanke had cut rates the day before and helped calm financial markets. But the White House and Congress wanted to do more. Republican and Democratic leaders, who normally have guns drawn on each other, were huddling behind closed door.
Like nearly everyone else who works in or around politics, I was stunned by Hillary Clinton's victory over Barack Obama in New Hampshire. My expectation of events turned out to be wholly wrong. I am less embarrassed by that, than thrilled that the electorate we dissect so constantly remains capable of delivering such a surprise.
Hillary Clinton stands behind no Democratic presidential candidate in her scorn for George W. Bush, but that isn’t stopping her from implementing Mr. Bush’s 2000 political strategy against John McCain. In one notable consequence of the front-loaded 2008 political calendar, she used it before the New Hampshire primary, not after.
Voting in New Hampshire ends at 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, with results expected to begin rolling in quickly.
Hillary Clinton, fighting for a comeback showing in New Hampshire, has begun playing Bruce Springsteen's "The Rising," which also happens also to be the anthem of John Edwards' populist campaign.
Goldman Sachs analysts say stock investors should look to larger cap and defensive sectors as a way to play the uncertainty of presidential primary season. While they say the major party nominees should become clear by "Super Duper Tuesday," there is greater electoral and policy uncertainty in this Presidential race because there are no incumbents running.
This is the time of the presidential race when the convergence of politicians and press is nearly complete. The Radisson, in downtown Manchester, is the closest thing there is to ground zero of the New Hampshire campaign. All the networks of NBC are broadcasting from this spot and thus all the candidates are coming here.
This week, New Hampshire becomes the gateway to a new political world--engaging multiple constituencies, playing out over a vast terrain, shifting the psychology of competition. But as the 2008 campaign moves toward contests in Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, then half the country on Feb. 5, the simplicity and careful planning of Iowa and New Hampshire phase give way to a complex, high-velocity game of survivor.
Here are three things to watch for when Iowans vote tonight: 1) Mobilization: if Democratic turnout is huge, that's a sign that Barack Obama has succeeded in pulling out enough independent voters to win. It would also show the energy and enthusiasm that Democrats hope will give them an edge in the general election.
Regardless of what happens today in Iowa, the 2008 presidential contest will come down to Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney, according to a CNBC Trillion Dollar Snap Survey of some of the nation's top money managers, investment strategists and professional economists.
Snapshots from the closing hours of the Iowa caucus: Song choices: At John Edwards rallies, Bruce Springsteen's "The Rising." At Barack Obama's, Stevie Wonder's "Signed, Sealed and Delivered." At Hillary Clinton's, Dolly Parton's "9 to 5." At Mike Huckabee's rally in Des Moines last night, it was "Sweet Home Alabama" --except the candidate himself was on stage strumming guitar with a local band.
We have a new Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll that's shaking up the Republican presidential race, since Rudy Giuliani has lost his national lead. But it's also shaking up Ron Paul's legions of Internet supporters--because he fared so poorly at just 4 percent of the vote. Because his numbers were so low I didn't mention Paul in my Wall Street Journal story on the poll.