IFR Preview-Major US economic data for Oct. 5
WHAT: Labor Department Employment Situation, September
WHEN: Friday, 0830 EDT (1230 GMT)
FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous Nonfarm payrolls +113,000 +130,000 +96,000 Private payrolls +130,000 +140,000 +103,000 Jobless rate (pct) 8.2 8.2 8.1
Average hrly earnings (pct) +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Average workweek (hrs) 34.4 34.5 34.4
IFR COMMENTARY: "Payrolls should be improved over the initial August read, up from +96k to about +130k. That would be the second-best reading in the last six months behind July's 141k gain, but would only be very slightly faster than the pace needed to absorb new labor market entrants. With government hiring slipping further as we approach the fiscal cliff, private payrolls look to be up 140k. Manufacturing should switch from a significant negative to a positive, but only a very slight one, as that sector remains essentially flatlined.
"After two months of declining labor force (down 518k overall) and employment (down 314k) numbers in the household survey, both should see rebounds in September. We estimate that the net effect will have the unemployment rate rounding up to 8.2% after rounding down to 8.1% in August.
"Earnings ticked down a penny in August, and should rebound 0.2% in September, bringing the y/y growth rate in average hourly earnings up from +1.7% to +1.8%. We look for the work week to tick back up to 34.5 hours as employers turn more to working current employees longer rather than hiring new ones in a climate of uncertainty."
WHAT: Federal Reserve Consumer Installment Credit, August
WHEN: Friday, 1500 EDT (1900 GMT)
FORECASTS (billions) Reuters IFR Previous Consumer credit $6.50 $12.00 -$3.28
IFR COMMENTARY: "Consumer credit should have rebounded in August from a surprise July contraction, rising by about $12.0 bln in our estimate. Auto sales, unexpectedly strong in August, should have continued to help drive nonrevolving credit. Revolving credit, though still weak, should see a small uptick after contracting $8.1 bln over the course of June and July.
"We expect the trend to remain lower than early in the year, and perhaps decline a bit further. Student debt will continue boosting the nonrevolving side, but consumers will likely hold back a bit more on other major non-mortgage debt-financed purchases until the current uncertainty is resolved."
(Compiled by Theodore Littleton of IFR Markets, a unit of Thomson Reuters)
((Reuters Economics and Markets Desk, +1-212-646-6300; Washington Newsroom, +1-202-898-8318))
Keywords: IFR PREVIEW/USA