GO
Loading...

CEE MARKETS 2-Forint leads lower as IMF questions persist

Monday, 8 Oct 2012 | 6:53 AM ET

(Adds Hungary and Romania detail)

* Hungary's forint gives back some of Friday gains

* Disappointing economic data hit Czech crown

* Romanian leu hits 2-month low, market eyes c.bank

By Sam Cage

BUCHAREST, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Hungary's forint led emerging European currencies lower on Monday, giving back some of the previous session's sharp gains as questions persist over an international financing deal.

Budapest scrapped a disputed tax on its central bank and unveiled a swathe of new measures on Friday to keep its deficit under control, removing an obstacle to an International Monetary Fund deal and sending the forint up more than 1 percent.

But on Monday, the currency was bid 0.6 percent lower on the day at 284 per euro by 0916 GMT.

"No wonder we are at these levels now, it's a correction," a dealer said. "If we look at monetary policy, what we are having is a rate-cut cycle, and there is still uncertainty over the IMF deal. That story is not over yet."

The cost of insuring Hungary's debt against a default for five years

sank to around 340 basis points, its lowest level since August 2011, but markets will remain on edge until a deal is actually signed.

"A fault confessed is half redressed," Commerzbank said in a note. "Until the EU and IMF give the all clear, risk continues to concentrate on the upper end in EUR-HUF."

Elsewhere, assets were pressured by a bearish mood on global stock markets after the World Bank cut growth forecasts for Asia and underlined concerns over the global economic outlook.

Stocks fell across central Europe, led by a 1 percent drop in Budapest

. The Czech crown

slipped 0.4 percent after data showed a bigger-than-expected fall in industrial output and raised expectations of a fourth straight quarter of recession.

"The data published today can hardly be interpreted as good news for the Czech crown," said Raromir Jac, analyst at Generali PPF Asset Management.

LEU LOWS Romania's leu

hit a new two-month low before regaining some ground to trade 0.1 percent lower at 4.572 per euro, as traders tested the level at which the central bank would step in to support the currency.

The leu is at its lowest since the summer, when it hit all-time lows on political uncertainty caused by a failed attempt by the government to remove the president from office, which also raised doubts over Romania's 5 billion euro IMF backstop deal.

A parliamentary election is due in December and campaigning and post-vote bargaining could again raise doubts over the country's adherence to its international commitments.

"Fears of central bank intervention may have subsided," said ING economist Mihai Tantaru. "It could soften further, eyeing 4.60 per euro in a matter of days."

Poland's zloty

also fell 0.4 percent, with markets weighing the prospect of monetary policy easing after a central banker said he may vote for an interest rate cut in November.

--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------

Currency Latest Previous Local Local close currency currency change change today in 2012 Czech crown 24.923 24.826 -0.39% +2.5% Polish zloty 4.082 4.067 -0.37% +9.38% Hungarian forint 284 282.3 -0.6% +10.77% Croatian kuna

7.461 7.478 +0.23% +0.73%

Romanian leu 4.572 4.566 -0.13% -5.49% Serbian dinar 114.8 114.87 +0.06% -6.84% Yield Spreads Czech treasury bonds 2-yr T-bond CZ2YT=RR +4 basis points to 47bps over bmk* 7-yr T-bond CZ6YT=RR +4 basis points to +77bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond CZ10YT=RR -4 basis points to +82bps over bmk* Polish treasury bonds 2-yr T-bond PL2YT=RR +1 basis points to +396bps over bmk* 5-yr T-bond PL5YT=RR +3 basis points to +362bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR +3 basis points to +318bps over bmk*

*Benchmark is German bond equivalent.

All data taken from Reuters at 1216 CET.

Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic

close at 1600 GMT.

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX Middle East spot FX Asia spot FX Latin America spot FX Other news and reports: World central bank news Economic Data Guide Official rates Emerging Diary Top events Diaries Diaries Index (Editing by Catherine Evans)

((sam.cage@thomsonreuters.com)(+40 0 21 305 5266)(Reuters Messaging: sam.cage.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

Keywords: MARKETS EASTEUROPE/