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METALS-LME copper hits one-month high on U.S. fiscal cliff hopes

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Published: Thursday, 29 Nov 2012 | 7:03 AM ET
By: Eric Onstad

* Aluminium, zinc touch seven-week highs as metals rise

* Fiscal cliff solution could spur year-end rally

* Tightness in Dec-Jan aluminium spread persists

(Adds quotes, details; previous SINGAPORE) LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Copper climbed to the highest in nearly a month on Thursday, buoyed by hopes that U.S. politicians were hammering out a solution to the "fiscal cliff" of spending cuts and tax hikes. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange touched an intraday high of $7,839 a tonne, the highest since Nov. 1, and was up 0.8 percent at $7,829 by 1126 GMT. Other metals made stronger gains than copper, with aluminium and zinc touching seven-week highs. Copper, which fell half a percent on Wednesday, has gained about 4 percent since touching a two-month low of $7,506 on Nov. 9 after worries about weak demand and potential for the U.S. fiscal cliff to send the world's largest economy back into recession. Analyst Duncan Hobbs at Macquarie in London said a year-end rally was possible if positive headlines on the global economy and top metal consumer China keeping emerging. "If we continue to see positive macro-economic data and the U.S. politicians avoid the fiscal cliff, that would be supportive and there might be enough momentum to carry the price into the early $8,000s, that's perfectly plausible," he said. Investors took heart after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner voiced optimism that Republicans could broker a deal with the White House and a conservative congressman said he would back an agreement with President Barack Obama to raise rates on the rich. The market could get a fillip on Monday after China's official purchasing manager's index is published over the weekend, which is expected to show factory activity in November expanded at its fastest pace in seven months.

"Underlining that, (copper) stocks are pretty light generally speaking and access is not always easy even when stocks exist. You could argue that is also constructive for early next year," Hobbs added. LME copper stocks <MCUSTX-TOTAL> are down by a third this year. The market was also supported on Thursday by a weakening in the dollar against a basket of currencies, which makes metals priced in the U.S. currency cheaper for holders of other currencies. Still, there was concern by some analysts that underlying physical demand for metals was still sluggish as the world economy fights to gain momentum. Senior metal executives in China said consumption of copper cathode is likely to grow more slowly there next year, cooling further after the pace of growth looks set to drop by at least a third this year. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded March copper contract rose 0.37 percent to close at 56,390 yuan ($9,100) a tonne.

ALUMINIUM TIGHTNESS On the LME, the premium of the December aluminium contract over January <CMALZ2-F3> crept up to $15, up from only $4.50 a week ago, as a major long and short holders continued to face off. LME data <0#LME-FBR> shows one party controls 20-29 percent of December aluminium contracts, while two short holders have positions each making up 5-9 percent and 10-19 percent of the market. Triland Metals said in a note that large warehouse stock movements and warrant cancellations were expected as the parties manoeuvre ahead of December's contract expiry on the third Wednesday of the month. Three-month aluminium surged 2.1 percent to $2,042 per tonne, breaking above the 200-day moving average and touching the highest level in seven weeks. Norwegian aluminium group Norsk Hydro said the market outside China could grow 2-4 percent next year after this year's 2 percent rise.

Zinc climbed 1.6 percent to $2,018.75 per tonne, the highest since Oct. 9, and lead added 1.7 percent to $2,225.50, hitting resistance at the 100-day moving average at $2,232. Nickel rose 1.7 percent to $17,269 a tonne and tin gained 1.3 percent to $21,700.

Metal Prices at 1133 GMT Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T

Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2011 Ytd Pct

move

COMEX Cu 355.90 2.75 +0.78 344.75 3.23 LME Alum 2041.25 41.25 +2.06 2020.00 1.05 LME Cu 7831.00 51.00 +0.66 7600.00 3.04 LME Lead 2224.75 36.75 +1.68 2034.00 9.38 LME Nickel 17273.00 343.00 +2.03 18650.00 -7.38 LME Tin 21650.00 225.00 +1.05 19200.00 12.76 LME Zinc 2020.75 33.75 +1.70 1845.00 9.53 SHFE Alu 15375.00 -15.00 -0.10 15845.00 -2.97 SHFE Cu* 56370.00 140.00 +0.25 55360.00 1.82 SHFE Zin 15165.00 70.00 +0.46 14795.00 2.50 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN

SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

(Additional reporting by Melanie Burton in Singapore; Editing by Alison Birrane)

 Print
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange touched an intraday high of $7,839 a tonne, the highest since Nov. 1, and was up 0.8 percent at $7,829 by 1126 GMT. Analyst Duncan Hobbs at Macquarie in London said a year-end rally was possible if positive headlines on the global economy and top metal consumer China keeping emerging. "

   
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