For those keeping score, here are my 2012 predictions, for which I earned a grade of C overall. Not one of my better years.
OVERALL GRADE: C
The yield on the 10-year Treasury hits 1 percent. Incomplete
If you look at a chart of the performance of the 10-year during 2012, this prediction likely would've gotten an A had it not been for the distortion of Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3).
J. Crew acquires Gap. C
I am giving myself an F rating for the prediction because the Gapremained a public company. But I gave myself a C given Gap's stock performance and continued fundamental recovery, thus making an acquisition too costly.
Three large well-known hedge funds close. A
This prediction was dead-on, as many hedge fund superstars decided to hang it up during 2012. For example:
President Obama is out after one term. F
Clearly wrong, no further explanation needed.