Kaminsky's Scorecard: 2012
Morgan Stanley, Vice Chairman
For those keeping score, here are my 2012 predictions, for which I earned a grade of C overall. Not one of my better years.
OVERALL GRADE: C
The yield on the 10-year Treasury hits 1 percent. Incomplete
If you look at a chart of the performance of the 10-year during 2012, this prediction likely would've gotten an A had it not been for the distortion of Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3).
J. Crew acquires Gap. C
I am giving myself an F rating for the prediction because the Gapremained a public company. But I gave myself a C given Gap's stock performance and continued fundamental recovery, thus making an acquisition too costly.
Three large well-known hedge funds close. A
This prediction was dead-on, as many hedge fund superstars decided to hang it up during 2012. For example: Edoma Partners, one of the most talked about hedge fund launched since the financial crisis, closed just two years after it started, hit by poor performance and a flurry of investor redemptions., One of the industry's best known figures, Greg Coffey, decided to retire early and liquate one of his funds at Moore Capital. That followed Driss Ben Braghim's decision to retire from GLG, the hedge fund he joined in 2008 and now owned by Man Group.
President Obama is out after one term. F
Clearly wrong, no further explanation needed.