Pisani's Scorecard: 2012
OVERALL GRADE: B
Global QE in early 2012 - in Europe, the U.S., Japan, and China -will step up. A
QE3 came in the U.S., the Japanese did it, and, well, let's not get too technical: the Chinese and the Europeans are taking in collateral and giving out cash. That is flooding the system with money, even if it's not printing money.
The U.S. stock market will continue to outperform Europe and the rest of the world. B
Partly right. Of the larger markets, Germany and Hong Kong outperformed, but the U.S. held up well.
Hong Kong: +19%
S&P 500: +13%
The China slowdown is real. There will be a banking crisis and commodity prices will drop mid-year. A
China struggled all year, with significant anxiety over the leadership handover that finally happened in November. Commodity prices did drop midyear.
No transaction tax in Europe, or here, will be imposed. B
No transaction tax in the U.S., but the momentum has shifted in Europe. France has just become the first European country to impose a tax, and a number of countries (Austria, Belgium, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and now even Germany) support the concept.