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Think Jamie Dimon Will Retire Next Year? Maybe So.

Tuesday, 4 Dec 2012 | 11:20 AM ET
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Predicting the near-term future of Wall Street is a lot like kissing an alligator. Even if you do it well, it's a crazy thing to even try.

That said, I did a pretty good job of it last year here are some more for 2013.

Steve Cohen will be charged with insider trading.

Never in my life have I witnessed the government relentlessly target an individual the way the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission have targeted Steve Cohen, the founder and chief executive of SAC Capital. Eventually, they will bring enough pressure to bear on one of Cohen's henchmen that he will flip and agree to testify against Cohen. I don't think Cohen will fold. In fact, I would expect him to fight any charges—and perhaps even beat the government's case against him.

Someone will blow up.

A financial firm that is not too big to fail will collapse this year. Low rates for extended periods invite financiers to take on too much risk, trading technology is outpacing our ability to manage trading risk, and financiers are once again over-confident in their ability to forecast future market conditions.

The economy will slow but will avoid a recession.

The deal that will be struck on the fiscal cliff will be contractionary for the economy but will not bring on a full-bore recession, in part because cheap oil will ameliorate the effect of rising taxes and falling spending.

Jamie Dimon will retire.

I say this every year. One of these years I'm going to be right and someone else will be tapped to lead JP Morgan Chase.

There's a mini tech bust.

The tech startup world is in for a real shake up. Wall Street firms that entered this game late will get burned, as investors pull back from supplying capital to innovative startups with few prospects for profits. Shares of Facebook and Zynga, however, will rally next year.

PREDICTIONS 2012: CARNEY'S SCORECARD

  Price   Change %Change
MS
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FB
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ZYGNA
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