Shactman's Scorecard: 2012


I made three predictions for 2012.

Oil Regulation. F

The first: regulation would slow down the fracking/oil boom. It remains a concern, however oil production in the United States continues to grow, and it's largely because the Obama Administration has not stood in its way.

Metals. F

The second: the rare earth market's chances of bouncing back. Prices for the metals involved in a wide range of technology have continued to drop, and no meaningful new product has yet made it to market. Companies like Molycorp have seen stock prices plummet. MCP is expected to ramp up production by year's end, but the stock is down 66 percent in 2012.

American Manufacturing. C

The third: manufacturing in America. As China's labor force becomes more expensive, the logic was that U.S. manufacturing would become more competitive. It is true that U.S. manufacturing has been a key to the somewhat tepid economic recovery. But because of innovation and automation, jobs have not grown at the same pace as manufacturing activity. It's still a positive but not quite what many (including me) thought it would be.

Looking ahead to 2014


  • Hot Commodity Prospects in 2013

    CNBC's Sharon Epperson shares her outlook on oil, gold, copper and corn next year, and Dan Dicker, MercBloc president, provides his energy forecast for 2013 and the best way to play oil and gas.

  • Defense in the New Year

    Defense companies are sure to be affected if we go over the "fiscal cliff" because of automatic spending cuts to the industry, reports CNBC's Jane Wells.

  • Travel Trends in the New Year

    CNBC's Simon Hobbs takes a look at some of the major travel trends in 2013.


Predictions 2013 Slideshows