Your Currency Trade on Chinese Growth
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China has been through some rocky times this year, at least by the country's rapid-growth standards. But recent economic reports suggest that government stimulus efforts have been effective and conditions may have hit bottom. With a new PMI report on economic activity coming next week, how do you trade the prospect of a rebounding Chinese economy?
Gina Sanchez, director of equity and asset allocation strategy at Roubini Global Economics, says that so far, "the PMIs affirm that China is having a stimulus-induced growth bounce." But she told CNBC's Melissa Lee it will be short term, adding that her firm's forecast is for 8% growth in the first half of 2013 - and just 5% by the start of 2014.
Even so, the prospect of a relatively sustained period of strong Chinese economic activity has Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, in a bullish mood. "I do think that China data has bottomed and it's turning up," she says.
So Bourdeau is looking at the Australian dollar, since China is Australia's largest trading partner and a pickup in China spells good news for the Aussie. Bourdeau says that the Australian dollar bottomed last summer at 0.9600 against the U.S. dollar, and since then has followed a trend line upward. That measn "very nice support for Aussie which means it would be hard to downside break."
So Bourdeau wants to buy the Australian dollar against the dollar on an upside break to 1.0520. She recommends a stop at 1.0410 and a very bullish target of 1.0800.
Todd Gordon, co-head of research and trading at Aspen Trading Group, reads the charts differently. In addition to the trend line Bourdeau identifies, he says there is overall consolidation taking place - and he thinks the Australian dollar could fall to parity against the dollar before breaking higher.
Stay tuned.
