Watch Out For Falling Euros
By: It's true - euro zone finance ministers can agree on a few things. They did so just this week, making actual headway toward resolution of the debt crisis and agreeing on new aid to Greece.
Not surprisingly, the leaders' progress has lifted the euro. But whether the good times will last is another question.
"Now we're above 1.30. Is it 1.30 to 1.35? i think to get up that high we'd probably have to get some good news out of Washington that helps risk appetite,. And sadly, I'm not looking for any good news, probably not until January if we get anything," says Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust.
Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets, sees another reason the euro's run could end: interest rates. Busch told CNBC's Melissa Lee that the euro's ups and downs are fairly closely correlated with rates on 10-year Treasurys. When rates to go up, the euro follows suit, and vice versa. In the wake of the Federal Reserve's announcement that quantitative easing will continue, "yields on the 10-year backed off a little bit and I think the euro hasn't done that at all," he says. "I'm expecting the euro to back off next week as U.S. yields have kind of peaked for the time being."
Busch wants to sell the euro against the dollar at 1.3175, right around current levels, leaving a tight stop at 1.3225 and setting a target of 1.3025. Once it hits that point, he says, "I'd probably look to buy it down there," since he expects the common currency to eventually trade in a range between 1.300 and 1.3500.
Todd Gordon, co-head of research and trading at Aspen Trading Group, is more bullish. "I think we're broken out" in technical terms, he says. "We have an old triple top that was broken." He also notes that trading is typically thin in December, so a significant move is possible.
But Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, agrees with Busch. She points out that the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates in January, and that could weigh on the euro.
