Currency Projections You've Never Considered
It's that time of the year again, when pundits and analysts of all stripes offer up predictions for the coming twelve months.But here at "Money in Motion," we've decided to go off the beaten path.
We've discovered some outlier projections from the strategists at Deutsche Bank that may not have been on your radar - ever. These pros stress that these are not their bases cases; rather, they say, "what we are trying to do is highlight outliers that are in the tails of the distribution." Conveniently, they also offer up related currency trading strategies, all tied up in a bow.
Here's a sampling:
1. "Fed finances the purchases of equities." There are those who fret that the Fed is running out of ways to spur economic growth. Not so, say the Deutsche Bank seers: "With the US housing sector apparently turning the corner, stronger equities may be the necessary tonic to further increase household wealth, and also to boost investment." Other central banks have done similar things, they say, and Fed regulations do allow extreme actions in extreme circumstances. If this happens, the dollar bloc and risk-sensitive currencies should benefit, the strategists say.
2. "Greece discovers gas reserves valued more than total debt." This would not be unheard of in the Mediterranean: think Levantine gas field, between Israel and Cyprus. In fact, the strategists say, the Greek "government has recently commissioned a seismic survey company to determine the potential magnitude of reserves." If they hit the jackpot, expect the euro to rise, Deutsche Bank says.
3. "Sweden, Turkey and Brazil work together to bring peace to the Middle East." In September, the trio formed a new initiative to "prevent assaults on sacred values" and to use nonviolent methods to work on global problems. If they turn their focus to the Middle East and actually make headway, it could lift the Israeli shekel and the Egyptian pound, along with the Indian rupee and the Turkish lira, and weaken the Canadian dollar and the Russian ruble.
4. "North Korea opening/detente." Kim Jong Un remains an international man of mystery, but there are unconfirmed reports that he may have plans to push ahead with reforms along the lines of China's agricultural and industry reforms in the 1970s and 1980s. If this happens, it would be good news for South Korea, and the won would likely rise.
5. "Europe gets powered by solar." Rain in Spain? No worries. Desertec, a consortium created to harness solar energy from the Sahara desert, is aiming to provide 15% of Europe's energy by 2050, the strategists say, and in November, "Morocco, Germany France, Italy, Malta, and Luxembourg reached an understanding for the first joint project between Europe and Morocco." With so many countries involved, the initiative could easily hit numerous snags. But "meaningful advances on the project over 2013 could result in one of the more positive surprises of the year." If that happens, look for the euro to gain ground.
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