Pro: Time to Buy the Yen
If you're tired of watching the "fiscal cliff" non-negotiations, you might find the yen's slide more engrossing.
The Japanese currency hit a 20-month low earlier Wednesday, and there is little on the horizon to suggest that the slide is over.
Except for one thing: short positions.
"Strategically, I like a weak yen," said Paul Richards of UBS. Alluding to Shinzo Abe, Japan's new prime minister, who has been pressing the Bank of Japan for more stimulus, Richards added, "You now have Abe all over the BOJ, and you have the governor, his term is coming up at the end of November. Things are changing for the BOJ."
Richards expects the Bank of Japan to raise its inflation target in January, increasing its ability to inject stimulus, which should put more downward pressure on the yen.
In the meantime, he said, "the market's really, really short the yen right now. " And that means any little hint of good news for the currency could initiate a sharp move upward.
So Richards wants to sell the dollar against the yen for a short-term trade of just two or three weeks. "Right now we're sitting around 85.70" yen to the dollar, he said. "I would comfortably sell the dollar against the yen there. I would put a stop loss at 87.15 and my target is 82.65."
Over to you.
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