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How to Take Shelter From the 'Cliff' Talks

Sunday, 30 Dec 2012 | 11:16 AM ET
Colin Anderson | Photographer's Choice | Getty Images

This is it — the do-or-die weekend for the "fiscal cliff" negotiations. How do you protect yourself from all the headline risk?

Brian Kelly of Shelter Harbor Capital thinks the place to be is gold.

"Let's think about what would happen," he told CNBC's Melissa Lee. "Best-case scenario, we're going to get some kind of a mini deal." That would still lead to a degree of fiscal tightening, which would probably lead the Federal Reserve to print money.

The other scenario, he says, is no deal. "The whole thing blows up, we go over the cliff, no deal, nobody's talking." In that case, he says, "the Federal Reserve will have to print an awful lot more dollars." In other words, both a mini deal and the absence of a deal would hurt the dollar, in Kelly's view. "

All in all, Kelly says, "it seems like gold is the one trade off of this. And since it hasn't moved, it probably has a much better opportunity to go higher."

(Read more: Gold May Be Down but Bulls Aren't Counting It Out)

Money In Motion, December 28, 2012
President Obama makes a statement on the fiscal cliff, with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Money In Motion traders.

Kathy Lien, a managing director at BK Asset Management, thinks the dollar may also have potential. She argues that "theres a tremendous amount of safe haven bid in the U.S. dollar that can come if we have any kind of good news," she says, pointing to the dollar's strength after Standard & Poor's cut the credit rating of U.S. government debt.

Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, agrees. "We have seen the dollar strengthen against commodity currencies, and that's showing us that a weak dollar off of this news is not happening any more. There's been a sharp sentiment turn."

Good luck out there.

Tune In: CNBC's "Money in Motion Currency Trading" airs on Fridays at 5:30pm and repeats on Saturdays at 7pm.

Learn more: The essential vocabulary for currency trading is on Key Terms Dictionary. Top currency strategies are broken down for you in Currency Class.

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