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Expect 2013 Hard Landing in China: Gallagher

Thursday, 10 Jan 2013 | 7:37 PM ET
What a Hard Landing in China Means
Certain sectors would be hit harder than others in the event of a sharp downturn in China this year, Societe Generale's Stephen Gallagher says.

A hard landing in China this year would mean a growth rate slowed to 3 percent to 3 percent, pulling down global GDP as much as 2 percent, Societe Generale Market Strategist and Head of Research Stephen Gallagher said Thursday.

"What we're looking, exploring is the possibility of a major pullback, because we tend to overshoot before we find our equilibrium," he said. "That overshooting is important because that's panic. That's when you spill over into the financial markets and into the financial institutions, and that could lead to a much larger downturn and pullback."

On "Fast Money," Gallagher said that he expectation was that China would grow 5 percent to 7 percent, with the former being "very weak growth for China."

Gallagher said that banks in Europe or the United States that were exposed to mining companies and equipment manufacturers could take a hit in the event of a China slowdown.

China's economy, he added, faced additional pressure from the once-a-decade transition of government.

"They're trying to push the economy from a cap x-led growth model to a consumer-led model," he said. "So, you've got a lot of pieces moving all at the same time."

As for the possibility that China would meet a hard landing, Gallagher said that it would likely happen this year.

Not so, said EmergingMoney.com's Tim Seymour.

(Watch: Apple's China Push)

The odds of a hard landing in China?

"Zero," he said, citing increases in power production and power consumption, indicators of economic activity. "China has recovered. It's not 10 percent. It is not 2 percent."

Trader disclosure: On Jan. 10, 2013, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC's "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Jon Najarian is long FB; Jon Najarian is long LM CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long AMAT CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long DECK CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long NOK CALL SPREADS; Tim Seymour is long BAC; Tim Seymour is long INTC; Tim Seymour is long SBUX; Tim Seymour is long MSFT; Tim Seymour is long TROX; Dan Nathan is long WFC 38 CALLS; Dan Nathan is long MSFT 26 PUTS; Brian Kelly is long XLF; Brian Kelly is long QQQ; Brian Kelly is long SPY; Brian Kelly is long XHG; Brian Kelly is long XLB; Brian Kelly is long EWG; Brian Kelly is long EWI; Brian Kelly is short EWY.

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