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More Yen Weakness Ahead, Experts Say

Friday, 18 Jan 2013 | 7:56 PM ET
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
Bloomberg | Getty Images
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

The land of the rising sun has a currency with further to fall.

That's the word from anumber of currency strategists, who are watching Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe press the Bank of Japan for aggressive stimulus action and a higher inflation target at its upcoming meeting. Some say that even if the central bank does less than expected, the yen will still continue its slide.

"People are so excited about this trade. Investors have waited three years for a big dollar-yen move up," says Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank. "Even if the BOJ disappoints on expectations, buy on a dip."

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"There is a fundamental catalyst that cloud push dollar yen higher," Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management, told CNBC's Melissa Lee. "If they do move forward with this 2% inflation target, then it could be very bearish for the yen."

Even if Japan gets to just 0.5% inflation, Lien says, "that would be consistent with a 95 dollar-yen."

So Lien wants to buy the dollar against the yen. She recommends waiting for a dip to 89.50, and then entering the trade, setting a stop at 88.00 and a target of 91.50.

Todd Gordon, co-head of research and trading at Aspen Trading Group, likes the trade. Even aside from fundamental factors, technical patterns suggest dollar-yen is headed over 90, he says - but he is concerned about investors' high expectations, and he suggests a tight stop on any trade.

Tune In: CNBC's "Money in Motion Currency Trading" airs on Fridays at 5:30pm and repeats on Saturdays at 7pm.

Learn more: The essential vocabulary for currency trading is on Key Terms Dictionary. Top currency strategies are broken down for you in Currency Class.

Talk back: Tell us what you want to hear about - email us at moneyinmotion@cnbc.com.

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