GO
Loading...

Kass: The Stock Market Is Hitting Its Top

The stock market continues to rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average marching toward the 14,000 level, but strategist Douglas Kass said Tuesday that the highs for the year may be in.



Kass, founder and president of Seabreeze Partners, said investors are ignoring an array of headwinds facing the stock market and economy alike.

(Read More: Dow Nears Record, but Is It Just Another Bubble?)

"Fiscal and monetary policy is not only unsustainable, but these policy initiatives are diminishing in strength," Kass said on CNBC's "Futures Now." "Basically, our country is running trillions of dollars in deficits while maintaining zero interest rates and these are unsustainable policy strategies."

Unless the economy makes a quick turnaround, Kass said it's "inevitable" these policies will be reversed, resulting in slower economic growth, rising interest rates and less attractive valuations.

Kass said the "most vulnerable part of our economy," though, is the fragility of the consumer. The troubles are myriad, he said – the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, continued job insecurity, incomes have not kept pace with the cost of living and home prices have lost considerable value. Meanwhile, retail investors faced two stock market downturns in the past decade, as well as the 'flash crash,' when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 1,000 points in a matter of minutes on May 6, 2010.

(Read More: Consumer Confidence Tumbles on Financial Fears)

Doug Kass
Doug Kass | Twitter
Doug Kass

"I think consumer behavior is going to be markedly different. You add back the fiscal drag of a rise in the payroll taxes and higher income tax rates and you start [to] manifest today in a conspicuous drop in consumer confidence," Kass said, adding "we are in the process of making the yearly high for the year."

In turn, Kass thinks the S&P 500 could soon drop by as much as 7 percent from current levels. He added it could end the year at the 1,425 level.

(Read More: Better Enjoy the Market Rally While You Can: Faber)

Kass has called a couple of bottoms in the past few years: Less than a week before the S&P 500 hit a generational low of 676 on March 9, 2009, Kass went on CNBC and predicted the bottom. On July 6, 2010, he said the market had made its lows for the year and that also proved true.

Watch "Futures Now" Tuesdays & Thursdays 1p ET exclusively on FuturesNow.CNBC.com !

Like us on Facebook! Facebook.com/CNBCFuturesNow

Follow us on Twitter!@CNBCFuturesNow

Contact Futures Now

  • Showtimes

    Watch Futures Now Tuesdays & Thursdays 1p ET exclusively on cnbc.com!

Sponsor Links

  • CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex electronic trading platform and trading facilities in New York and Chicago.

  • Take your trading to the next level with a platform that lets you trade stocks, options, futures and forex all in one place with no platform or data with no trade minimums. Open an account with TD Ameritrade and get up to $600 cash.