How to Trade the Euro Ahead of the Jobs Data
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If you blinked, you might have missed it.
That was the euro's dip after Deutsche Bank released downbeat earnings and Germany reported a plunge in retail sales. In a matter of hours, the currency reversed course and began heading north again.
Paul Richards, head of global FX at UBS, thinks there is more upward movement to come.
"This was the death stock a year ago, wasn't it? It's been quite a bounce," he told CNBC's Scott Wapner. "The only reason it's not going higher right now is just sticker shock."
Once investors collect themselves, Richards says, a number of factors will keep the euro rising. For one thing, he says, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said recently that 2012 was the relaunch of the euro - his latest bold declaration of euro support. Also, European exporters appear to be underweight in the euro, and they will need to buy in order to hedge their sales.
In terms of intermarket indicators, the German 2-year Bund is starting to outpace 2-year Treasurys, which Richards says is "typically a pretty good sign the currency is headed up."
So Richards recommends buying the euro against the dollar right around current levels. He wants to enter the trade at 1.3540, setting a tight stop at 1.3400 and looking for a move higher to 1.3825.
That level is important, he says, because the euro was at 1.3830 back when Greece first started its descent into crisis.
"If we get up hear 1.3830, there's going to be a lot of attention on this currency again," he says.
Check out the discussion on the video, starting at 3:04.
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