INSTANT VIEW 3-S.Korea Jan exports rise more than expected
(Adds new comment, key points)
SEOUL, Feb 1 (Reuters) - South Korean exports in January rose 11.8 percent from a year earlier while imports grew 3.9 percent, data showed on Friday, both beating market expectations and suggesting a sustained recovery in global trade.
A private survey on purchasing managers in South Korea's manufacturing sector showed separately new export orders received during January rose for the first time in eight months over the previous month.
Another government data released on Friday showed annual consumer inflation in Asia's fourth-largest economy ticked up to 1.5 percent in January from 1.4 percent in December, although staying well below the central bank's target band.
- Full story on exports
- January manufacturing PMI story
- January inflation story
- Despite the growth in January exports, the average value per working day fell to $1.92 billion last month from a revised $2.09 billion in December, Thomson Reuters calculations show.
- Reuters poll forecasts: January exports were seen up by 10.6 percent from a year earlier and imports up 2.4 percent.
IM NO-JUNG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, IM INVESTMENT & SECURITIES
"The growth in exports was mostly because of the base effect, not a fundamental rise. The exports amount was smaller than I thought, because of the stronger won and the weak global demand."
"I think the Bank of Korea can cut (interest) rates this month because domestic economy isn't looking like bottoming up and it is necessary to smooth the strengthening speed of won."
KIM YU-KYUM, ECONOMIST, LIG INVESTMENT & SECURITIES
"Since the GDP gap rate has passed the lowest point, BOK will freeze the rate. I think the (interest) rate will be raised at some point in the fourth quarter when the economic recovery will speed up. Until then, BOK will freeze the rate."
"The economic recovery in the United States and China will improve Korean exports in general. However, the fiscal tightening and tax increases (in the U.S.) could impact the Korean exports negatively at least for the first quarter or first half of this year."
PARK HYUNG-JUNG, ECONOMIST, MERITZ SECURITIES
"The Bank of Korea is going to cut interest rates because price inflation isn't expected to go up and the won is eventually going to keep strengthening. Other Asian countries, like India most recently, have been cutting rates or are preparing to. South Korea most likely will follow that trend."
"The fiscal tightening in the U.S. will have a limited impact on South Korean exports. The areas that most affect South Korean trade right now are the euro zone and China. Euro zone countries are likely to show negative growth until the first half of this year and China, although it has reached the trough, hasn't picked up momentum."
- The won was nearly flat, up 0.03 percent to 1,088.7 against the dollar by 0116 GMT, and Seoul shares were down 0.17 percent at 1,958.61 points. March futures on three-year treasury bonds were down 0.01 point at 106.17.
- Full statement in Korean from Statistics Korea available at http://www.kostat.go.kr
- Historical data available at the statistics agency's data base at http://kosis.kr
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- South Korea's gross domestic product grew by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter from the July-September period, up from the previous quarter but suggesting that the economy is not due for a sharp rebound.
- The Bank of Korea said South Korea's economic growth will remain below its potential rate throughout 2013 and 2014, though it expects the negative output gap to narrow from the second half of this year.
- South Korea's industrial output unexpectedly rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.0 percent in December from the previous month following a revised 2.6 percent gain in November.
- The Bank of Korea kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 2.75 percent in January, but its reduction of growth and inflation forecasts for the year left most analysts expecting another rate cut in February or March.
(Reporting By Se Young Lee, Christine Kim, Narae Kim, Ju-min Park; Editing by Choonsik Yoo)