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SOFTS-ICE arabica at lowest since June 2010, cocoa also slips

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Published: Friday, 15 Feb 2013 | 3:31 PM ET
By: Marcy Nicholson and Sarah McFarlane

* Arabica hits double bottom with previous session's low

* ICE cocoa hits lowest level since June 2012

* Raw sugar volume neared heavy 222,000 lots on Thursday

(New throughout, updates closing prices)

NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Arabica coffee futures on ICE fell to the lowest level in more than 2-1/2 years on Friday, on heavy position rolling out of the spot contract and abundant supplies, while cocoa dropped to a 7-1/2-month low as the chart inverted.

Raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. consolidated mostly lower after dropping to a 2-1/2-year low in the previous session, lifting the spot contract's premium to the highest in more than seven months.

The ICE agricultural markets will shut on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday and will reopen for regular trade on Tuesday.

May arabica coffee futures on ICE closed down 0.55 cent, or 0.4 percent, at $1.4020 per lb, after falling to the lowest level since June 2010 at $1.3965.

Improving crop prospects in top producer Brazil limited any price upside potential, despite concerns of roya disease, or leaf rust, curbing Central American production, dealers said.

"It seems like people have ... really have just focused their attention to just selling coffee and really losing any bullish confidence in the coffee all together," said Hector Galvan, senior market strategist for RJO Futures in Chicago.

May robusta coffee futures on Liffe eased $2 to finish at $2,057 a tonne.

In cocoa, May futures on ICE closed down $12, or 0.6 percent, at $2,144 a tonne, after dipping to $2,135 earlier in the session, the lowest level for the second month since June 2012. The March contract, which had its first notice day on Thursday, closed at a $3 premium to May and then peaked at a two-month high around $22 on a continuation chart in post-settlement dealings, a stark contrast to the discount of roughly $27 held the previous two sessions.

"The speculators have been long and as they're getting out they've been moving the market back and forth," Galvan said.

Dealers said West Africa's mid crop development was benefiting from favorable weather, which was weighing on the market as well as forward sales.

"The midcrop is looking to do very well because the weather's looking good in Ivory Coast," Galvan said.

"There are not a lot of bullish catalysts out there that people can turn to."

May cocoa on Liffe settled 9 pounds lower, or 0.6 percent, at 1,418 pounds a tonne, above Tuesday's 10-month low of 1,411 pounds.

"We haven't got too much scope for upside from a fundamental perspective in the near term," said a London-based broker, adding there was potential for record mid crops from West Africa.

ICE raw sugar futures consolidated mostly lower, digesting losses after dipping the previous session to the lowest level since August 2010 at 17.87 cents per lb, basis March.

Total volume was exceptionally heavy on Thursday, reaching a five-month high at nearly 222,000 lots, ICE data showed, on March/May spreading. Volume reached high levels once again on Friday, climbing above 167,000 lots, up 73 percent from the 250-day average, ICE data showed.

The spread remained active, with the March premium versus May jumping to 0.27 cent, the highest in 7-1/2 months and up from around 0.17 on Thursday. The premium was viewed as the result of the large speculative net short position, as they were forced to cover their shorts to get out of the March contract ahead of its expiry at the end of the month.

March raw sugar futures on ICE edged up 0.06 cent, or 0.3 percent, to end at 18.00 cents a lb, remaining up from the previous session's 2-1/2-year low at 17.87 cents. March options expired on Friday with dealers noting heavy open interest in puts at 18 cents.

The most active May sugar futures dropped by 0.03 cent to settle at 17.74 cents.

An expected third consecutive global surplus kept the market under pressure, with large crops expected from key producers including Brazil, where the harvest typically begins in April.

"There's nothing expected until late spring now in terms of fundamental developments," said VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov.

Brazil harvested the tail end of its main center-south 2012/13 cane crop in the second half of January, taking the season's cumulative total to 532.18 million tonnes, up 7.9 percent from a year earlier, industry association Unica data showed on Friday.

"People are now focusing on Indian production," said a London-based broker, adding prospects were improving and expectations were for a crop of between 25 million and 26 million tonnes, at the upper end of earlier estimates.

May white sugar on Liffe settled down 10 cents at $490.30 a tonne.

(Editing by Alison Birrane, James Jukwey and M.D. Golan)

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NEW YORK/ LONDON, Feb 15- Arabica coffee futures on ICE fell to the lowest level in more than 2-1/ 2 years on Friday, on heavy position rolling out of the spot contract and abundant supplies, while cocoa dropped to a 7-1/ 2- month low as the chart inverted.

   
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