Yuan ends lower after dollar rebounds during Chinese holiday
* Yuan finishes at 6.2427/dollar, dropping 0.16 pct
* C.bank midpoint down 0.04 pct on global dollar strength
* Mild G20 currency statement weakens sentiment to yuan
SHANGHAI, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The yuan closed lower on Monday after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set a slightly weaker midpoint to reflect the dollar's gains in global markets during a long Chinese holiday last week for the Lunar New Year, traders said. Spot yuan finished at 6.2427 per dollar, losing 0.16 percent from 6.2325 at the close on Feb. 8, the last trading day before the holiday. Volume was average at $13.72 billion on Monday, recovering from a pre-holiday thin $6.31 billion on Feb. 8. Before trading began, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set a weaker midpoint, down 0.04 percent from the previous trading day, reflecting but lagging behind a 0.45 percent rise in the dollar index during the Chinese holiday. At the weekend, a statement issued by G20 policymakers did not single out Japan for its intervention to devalue the yen , although it said members should refrain from competitive devaluations and that monetary policy should be directed only at price stability and growth. "The G20's decision not to single out Japan for adopting policies that weakened the yen may mean further softening in Asian currencies in the near term," said a trader at a Chinese commercial bank in Shanghai. "If this is the case, the yuan may eventually succumb to pressure for depreciation from other Asian currencies." For now, however, the yuan was supported by adequate dollar supply from China's healthy trade in January, traders said. Right before the holiday, customs data showed China's exports in January grew 25 percent from a year earlier, the strongest showing since April 2011 and well ahead of market expectations for a 17 percent rise. That helped boost the country's trade surplus to $29.2 billion in January, compared with a forecast of $22.0 billion and December's $31.6 billion.
The onshore spot yuan market at a glance:
Item Current Previous Change PBOC midpoint 6.2816 6.2793 -0.04Spot yuan 6.2427 6.2325 -0.16Divergence from -0.62
midpoint*
Spot change ytd -0.20 Spot change since 2005 revaluation +32.58 *Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number
indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The PBOC allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 1 percent from official midpoint rate it sets each morning.
OFFSHORE CNH MARKET
The offshore yuan traded in Hong Kong (CNH) remains
at a premium to the onshore version. Analysts say this is partly due to the fact that the offshore yuan is not bound by the official midpoint, which keeps the exchange rate within 1 percent on either side of the fix. One-year non-deliverable forwards, considered an imperfect indicator of future expectations for yuan appreciation or depreciation, were quoted at rates implying depreciation over the next 12 months.
The offshore yuan market at a glance:
Instrument Current Difference from
onshore (pct)
Offshore spot yuan 6.2320 +0.17*Offshore non-deliverable 6.3265 -0.71**
forwards
*Premium for offshore spot over onshore
**Figure reflects difference from PBOC's official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint. .
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MARKET DRIVERS - G20 promises unlikely to end devaluation debate
- China restrains yuan rise in response to Asian currency weakness - Corporates get tough lesson in FX risk from central bank
- Offshore yuan premium returns as market bets on appreciation - Spot yuan has rallied strongly since late July 2012, and the PBOC is using its daily midpoint to restrain further appreciation. GRAPHIC: http://link.reuters.com/pyx74t - China's trade surplus surged in late 2012, but the surge was mainly due to weak imports rather than strong exports. GRAPHIC: http://link.reuters.com/qav68s - Corporate yuan purchases still exceed dollar purchases, but the gap is narrowing. Exporters are converting progressively smaller portions of their foreign exchange receipts into yuan. GRAPHIC: http://link.reuters.com/syx74t - Hot money outflows may be putting downward pressure on the yuan. GRAPHIC: http://link.reuters.com/saz74t - Despite relatively stable dollar/yuan exchange rate, the yuan is appreciating on a trade-weighted basis. GRAPHIC: http://link.reuters.com/sed74t
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(Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)