On Tuesday, U.S. home builder sentiment ticked slightly lower to 46 after nailing a seven-year high of 47 last month. A reading of more than 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The ho-hum report follows a surge in home builder stocks in 2012. During the period, the companies' shares rose 122.8 percent compared with a 13.4 percent rise in the S&P 500, according to KBW analysts.
"We've been telling investors that if you want to be long housing right now, you've got to go to the higher beta names, names like Beazer, Hovnanian — the names that are a little further out on the risk curve — because a rising tide will lift all boats so you want to kind of go with the high-beta names," Goldberg said. "There's a lot baked into some of the safer names now, so we're on the sidelines generally."
He has a "neutral" rating on the stocks of Ryland Group and PulteGroup and a "sell" rating on Meritage Homes and KB Home shares.
Goldberg forecast a rise in growth in multifamily housing and the rental population.
"I think really the biggest constraint on the housing market rebound or really a robust housing market rebound now is coming from mortgage constraints," he said. "Underwriting's become a lot more normalized. It's tough to get a mortgage if you have marginal credit right now, so I think there is going to be a lot of demand in the multifamily market for rentals, especially as household formation continues to accelerate."
He also sees potential for price growth in the new home market due to affordable prices, low 30-year fixed mortgage rates and a lot of purchasing power for consumers.
"I think you could have very, very significant home price appreciation," he said. "We're baking in about 5 to 7 percent in most of the modeling we're doing, but it could be more significant than that."