Dow Reaches a High and Will Hit 15,000 - Here's How
So what could bring us there?
Actually, pretty much the same stuff that brought us to our all-time high: big moves in big stocks.
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The Dow is a price-weighted index, meaning that each one-point appreciation in one of the 30 Dow stocks translates to a one-point appreciation in the Dow. That means that stocks with high share prices contributed an outsized amount to the Dow's rally.
Think about it this way. If a $10 stock rises 10%, then it will rise by $1, and the Dow will move one point higher. However, if a $100 stock rises 10%, then the Dow just went up ten points on the move.
That explains why we can credit just five Dow stocks for the bulk of the rally since March 9, 2009:
Top 5 Dow Contributors
|% Gain||Points Contributed|
|United Technologies (UTX)||142%||414|
So what stocks will drive the move up to 15,000?
So how much would they need to rally?
Well, is the other 25 members stayed here, we would need to see the following gains from those stocks:
|Current Price||Required Price||Required % Gain|
|United Technologies (UTX)||$91||$100||10%|
|Exxon Mobil (XOM)||$90||$100||11%|
Of course, predicting the winners is always the tricky part.