Why the Gold Trade Is Not Over
Don't look now, but some pretty big names in the investment world are arguing that the great gold run is history.
Certainly gold, which typically falls when interest rates rise, has been sinking amid positive economic reports.
Well, you can't have a market without differences of opinion, and on gold, several experts are happy to oblige.
"It's a little too early to call" the end of the gold run, said Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank. "The biggest risk for the short gold trade now is that we get a weak employment number ahead in the U.S., which then would change everyone's expectations investor-wise for when the Fed will end quantitative easing."
(Read More: CNBC Explains Quantitative Easing)
In other words, a weak employment report would lead investors to expect low interest rates for some time to come. Since gold tends to strengthen when interest rates are low, and investors are giving up less in the way of yield to own it, expectations like those should give gold a lift.
Prices of the yellow metal rose last week when a top European Central Bank official said the euro zone crisis was not over, giving investors reason to think accommodative policies would stay in place.
Brian Kelly of Shelter Harbor Capital has other reasons to like gold.
(Read More: Gold Posts Second Weekly Gain)
"The reason why you buy gold is the currency debasement play," he told CNBC's Amanda Drury. "Every central bank in the word is debasing the currency, and every central bank is actually buying gold again," he said. Interest rates are really beside the point, he added, and he said he expects gold to move higher. "You have central banks sopping this up."
How high could gold rise?
Kelly said he expects "gold can go well past $2,000 an ounce." It won't be anytime soon, he said, but "what the central banks have been doing has been done in the past. It's never ended well. That's the gold trade. And if it happens that way, gold goes well north of $2,000."
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