Oracle Dip Temporary, Stock Going Back Up: Analysts

Thursday, 21 Mar 2013 | 12:11 PM ET
Oracle's Blame Game Gets 'Personnel'
The big tech company is blaming the new sales force for its poor performance. Is it justified? Matthew Hedberg, RBC Capital Markets, takes a look inside the firm, and explains why he maintains an "outperform" rating on the stock.

Oracle's stock took a dive on Thursday following a weak earnings report, but some analysts said the dip is only temporary and not an indicator for other software giants.

(Read More: Oracle Blames New Sales People for Missing Targets)

"The company was quick to point out that it was not macro, and more sales-force execution was the primary issue," Matthew Hedberg, markets analyst for RBC Capital, told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."

"The natural reaction is to overreact to software overall. Our best guess though is this is Oracle specific, we'll have to see as we get closer to the end of the March earnings season."

Oracle had forecast a 3 to 13 percent increase in new software licenses and cloud subscriptions for the third quarter, but the company posted a 2 percent drop.

Overall, the company's revenue fell 1 percent to $8.7 billion, missing analysts estimates of $9.38 billion.

Breaking Down Oracle Earnings: Analyst
Brent Thill, UBS analyst, explains how the big tech's earnings miss was due to "internal execution" and not "macro issues."

While investors may take Oracle's shortfall as sign that other software companies will also miss sales expectations, Brent Thill, an analyst for UBS, said he believes the dip is limited in nature and represented a buying opportunity.

"I think that this was largely Oracle's internal execution, this is not a macro issue," Thill said Thursday on "Squawk on the Street."

Thill said that last year the software giant missed in the second quarter and got back on track quickly. He expects the company to follow the same pattern in the fourth quarter.

"Q4 is their biggest quarter, we call it the calm before the storm. Oracle has again been a very strong execution machine. ... We think more internal, more than external," Thill said. "They've never really had two quarters back to back where they've had horrible execution. ... I think this is a company that tends to do housekeeping quicker than most."

Oracle's stock was down about 8 percent at $32.81 in midday trading. But Hedberg said he can see the share price increasing to about 13 times earnings, which is about $37.

"It's a big move, but the last time this happened was back in December 2011. The stock went on to have a nice 12-month run post that move," he said. "We think the bar has been set appropriately low. The company talked about a conservative guidance into their seasonally strong fourth quarter, and with the stock trading right now about 12 times earnings, which is in line with peers, we think it can get back to a 5-year average, which is closer to 13 times" or $37.

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