The immediate banking crisis in Cyprus looks very close to reaching resolution but, as Felix Salmon notes, this isn't the end of Cyprus's troubles or the geopolitical contest over Cyprus's future.
In the Europe vs Russia poker game, the Europeans have played the most aggressive move they can, essentially forcing Russian depositors to contribute maximally to the bailout against their will. If this is how the game ends, it's an unambiguous loss for Russia, and a win for the EU….
Of course, the game does not end here. It's unlikely that Russia will appear bearing a better deal at some point in the next 24 hours, but the hit to Cyprus's GDP is going to be so enormous that staying in the euro over the long term, absent another round or two of massive debt relief, is going to be extremely difficult.
This deserves more attention. In the first place, the Europeans may be playing poker but the Russians are not. The Russians are playing something closer to preferans, which was very nearly the Russian national card game in the 19th century and is still quite popular there. Preferans resembles bridge, in which players make bids or contracts for how many tricks they will take. The other players then try to win tricks away from the top bidder, hoping to make him come up short on his contract.