Why Gold Has Lost Its Luster (For Now)
The gold rally might be over, at least in the short-term, some professional traders told CNBC on Tuesday.
Gold has suffered two consecutive quarters of losses and it appears the second quarter isn't getting off to a good start either, as the precious metal fell 1.5 percent on Tuesday, its biggest one-day drop in more than a month. The second quarter, by the way, began on Monday.
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"If the yen is going to continue lower and there's no reason to buy the euro right now, that means dollar strength," said Iuorio. "Our economy is comparatively the best ship in the harbor right now. So if people buy the dollar, gold is going to go down."
In the near term, Iuorio thinks gold could drop to $1,550 an ounce, which pro trader Anthony Grisanti agreed is a major technical level.
"If we get through that, you're going to see $1,500, I think, pretty quick," Grisanti said from the New York Mercantile Exchange, adding that over the last five days, gold has been range bound between the $1,550 to $1,604 level. "The next stop is $1,568, so let's see how it holds that level."
Looking ahead to the long-term picture, however, Iuorio thinks the price of gold will likely rise so long as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues its policies on bond purchases and record-low interest rates. In September, the Fed launched a third round of quantitative easing (QE), in which it has bought $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month, primarily in mortgage-backed bonds.
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"For me to be a long-term bear on gold, I'd have to believe that the Fed is going to act responsibly longer term and I'm not there yet," Iourio said, meaning he doesn't think the Fed will discontinue QE anytime soon.
On Thursday, spot gold fell 1.4 percent to $1,576.45, its lowest price since March 8. U.S. gold futures settled down $24.90 to $1,575.10 an ounce, with trading volume about 25 percent below the 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.
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